A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong Fluctuation
Directing against the shortcoming of low accuracy in short-term traffic flow prediction caused by strong traffic flow fluctuation, a novel method for short-term traffic forecasting based on the combination of improved grey Verhulst prediction algorithm and first-order difference exponential smoothin...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Control Science and Engineering |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/4570493 |
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| _version_ | 1832561687318757376 |
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| author | Darong Huang Zhenping Deng Bo Mi |
| author_facet | Darong Huang Zhenping Deng Bo Mi |
| author_sort | Darong Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Directing against the shortcoming of low accuracy in short-term traffic flow prediction caused by strong traffic flow fluctuation, a novel method for short-term traffic forecasting based on the combination of improved grey Verhulst prediction algorithm and first-order difference exponential smoothing is proposed. Firstly, we constructed an improved grey Verhulst prediction model by introducing the Markov chain to its traditional version. Then, based on an introduced dynamic weighting factor, the improved grey Verhulst prediction method, and the first-order difference exponential smoothing technique, the new method for short-term traffic forecasting is completed in an efficient way. Finally, experiment and analysis are carried out in the light of actual data gathered from strong fluctuation environment to verify the effectiveness and rationality of our proposed scheme. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-157f3a0cee3041b8ada6224e58f7beff |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-5249 1687-5257 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Control Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-157f3a0cee3041b8ada6224e58f7beff2025-02-03T01:24:25ZengWileyJournal of Control Science and Engineering1687-52491687-52572018-01-01201810.1155/2018/45704934570493A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong FluctuationDarong Huang0Zhenping Deng1Bo Mi2Institute of Information Science and Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, ChinaInstitute of Information Science and Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, ChinaInstitute of Information Science and Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, ChinaDirecting against the shortcoming of low accuracy in short-term traffic flow prediction caused by strong traffic flow fluctuation, a novel method for short-term traffic forecasting based on the combination of improved grey Verhulst prediction algorithm and first-order difference exponential smoothing is proposed. Firstly, we constructed an improved grey Verhulst prediction model by introducing the Markov chain to its traditional version. Then, based on an introduced dynamic weighting factor, the improved grey Verhulst prediction method, and the first-order difference exponential smoothing technique, the new method for short-term traffic forecasting is completed in an efficient way. Finally, experiment and analysis are carried out in the light of actual data gathered from strong fluctuation environment to verify the effectiveness and rationality of our proposed scheme.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/4570493 |
| spellingShingle | Darong Huang Zhenping Deng Bo Mi A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong Fluctuation Journal of Control Science and Engineering |
| title | A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong Fluctuation |
| title_full | A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong Fluctuation |
| title_fullStr | A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong Fluctuation |
| title_full_unstemmed | A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong Fluctuation |
| title_short | A New Synergistic Forecasting Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow with Event-Triggered Strong Fluctuation |
| title_sort | new synergistic forecasting method for short term traffic flow with event triggered strong fluctuation |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/4570493 |
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