How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania
Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like u...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Climate Risk Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324001037 |
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| author | Jacob Emanuel Joseph K.P.C Rao Elirehema Swai Anthony M. Whitbread Reimund P. Rötter |
| author_facet | Jacob Emanuel Joseph K.P.C Rao Elirehema Swai Anthony M. Whitbread Reimund P. Rötter |
| author_sort | Jacob Emanuel Joseph |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-14e306f6930c4beba84ac096565701cd |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2212-0963 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-14e306f6930c4beba84ac096565701cd2025-08-20T03:04:45ZengElsevierClimate Risk Management2212-09632025-01-014710068610.1016/j.crm.2024.100686How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in TanzaniaJacob Emanuel Joseph0K.P.C Rao1Elirehema Swai2Anthony M. Whitbread3Reimund P. Rötter4University of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agrosystems Modelling (TROPAGS), Grisebachstrasse 6, 37077, Göttingen, Germany; International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Corresponding author.International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad, IndiaTanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI)- Makutupora, Dodoma, TanzaniaInternational Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaUniversity of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agrosystems Modelling (TROPAGS), Grisebachstrasse 6, 37077, Göttingen, Germany; University of Göttingen, Center of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), Buesgenweg 1, 37077, Göttingen, GermanyUnderstanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324001037APSIMClimate risk managementGrowing periodOnset datesSeasonal climate forecastsSea surface temperature |
| spellingShingle | Jacob Emanuel Joseph K.P.C Rao Elirehema Swai Anthony M. Whitbread Reimund P. Rötter How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania Climate Risk Management APSIM Climate risk management Growing period Onset dates Seasonal climate forecasts Sea surface temperature |
| title | How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania |
| title_full | How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania |
| title_fullStr | How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania |
| title_full_unstemmed | How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania |
| title_short | How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania |
| title_sort | how beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management an appraisal for crop production in tanzania |
| topic | APSIM Climate risk management Growing period Onset dates Seasonal climate forecasts Sea surface temperature |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324001037 |
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