A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods

Abstract Paper aims Propose a continuous decision support system, a Digital Twin, integrating two widely used techniques, Discrete Event Simulation and forecasting methods. Originality With the evolution of the industry, there is a growing need for increasingly agile and assertive decision support...

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Main Authors: Carlos Henrique dos Santos, Renan Delgado Camurça Lima, Fabiano Leal, José Antonio de Queiroz, Pedro Paulo Balestrassi, José Arnaldo Barra Montevechi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO) 2020-11-01
Series:Production
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132020000100708&tlng=en
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author Carlos Henrique dos Santos
Renan Delgado Camurça Lima
Fabiano Leal
José Antonio de Queiroz
Pedro Paulo Balestrassi
José Arnaldo Barra Montevechi
author_facet Carlos Henrique dos Santos
Renan Delgado Camurça Lima
Fabiano Leal
José Antonio de Queiroz
Pedro Paulo Balestrassi
José Arnaldo Barra Montevechi
author_sort Carlos Henrique dos Santos
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Paper aims Propose a continuous decision support system, a Digital Twin, integrating two widely used techniques, Discrete Event Simulation and forecasting methods. Originality With the evolution of the industry, there is a growing need for increasingly agile and assertive decision support systems. Also, familiar tools and techniques tend to change over time to suit such a scenario, supporting new researches on their use in the modern industry. Research method The proposed method allows the use of simulation, with the aid of forecasting methods, for continuous decision making, composing the so-called Digital Twin. The method was applied in a real process to validate it. Main findings The Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting methods were used to supply the simulation model in order to test scenarios and guide decision making. The developed system enabled a virtual copy with a certain degree of intelligence and that provides answers to make the constant decision-making process more efficient. Implications for theory and practice The proposed method can be used for several operational problems like headcount, production planning and covers different levels of decision. Therefore, it can be used both on the shop floor and at managerial levels.
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institution OA Journals
issn 1980-5411
language English
publishDate 2020-11-01
publisher Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)
record_format Article
series Production
spelling doaj-art-144bda230557414ea88c3ebca482dafc2025-08-20T02:04:52ZengAssociação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)Production1980-54112020-11-013010.1590/0103-6513.20200018A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methodsCarlos Henrique dos Santoshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8847-8951Renan Delgado Camurça Limahttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4690-5238Fabiano Lealhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9814-5352José Antonio de Queirozhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1658-3525Pedro Paulo Balestrassihttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2772-0043José Arnaldo Barra Montevechihttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6443-5113Abstract Paper aims Propose a continuous decision support system, a Digital Twin, integrating two widely used techniques, Discrete Event Simulation and forecasting methods. Originality With the evolution of the industry, there is a growing need for increasingly agile and assertive decision support systems. Also, familiar tools and techniques tend to change over time to suit such a scenario, supporting new researches on their use in the modern industry. Research method The proposed method allows the use of simulation, with the aid of forecasting methods, for continuous decision making, composing the so-called Digital Twin. The method was applied in a real process to validate it. Main findings The Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting methods were used to supply the simulation model in order to test scenarios and guide decision making. The developed system enabled a virtual copy with a certain degree of intelligence and that provides answers to make the constant decision-making process more efficient. Implications for theory and practice The proposed method can be used for several operational problems like headcount, production planning and covers different levels of decision. Therefore, it can be used both on the shop floor and at managerial levels.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132020000100708&tlng=enDecision support systemDiscrete Event SimulationForecasting methodsDigital TwinOperational planning
spellingShingle Carlos Henrique dos Santos
Renan Delgado Camurça Lima
Fabiano Leal
José Antonio de Queiroz
Pedro Paulo Balestrassi
José Arnaldo Barra Montevechi
A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods
Production
Decision support system
Discrete Event Simulation
Forecasting methods
Digital Twin
Operational planning
title A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods
title_full A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods
title_fullStr A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods
title_full_unstemmed A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods
title_short A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods
title_sort decision support tool for operational planning a digital twin using simulation and forecasting methods
topic Decision support system
Discrete Event Simulation
Forecasting methods
Digital Twin
Operational planning
url http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132020000100708&tlng=en
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