Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China
Drought, affects agricultural production and winter wheat, a crucial staple crop, is continuously exposed to drought stress in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, which has notable implications for global food security. Here, we used the 1981–2020 meteorological datasets to calculate the monthly standardized...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425003543 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850075889241423872 |
|---|---|
| author | Teri Gele Yongbin Bao Cha Ersi Bilige Sudu Sicheng Wei Jiquan Zhang Zhijun Tong Xingpeng Liu |
| author_facet | Teri Gele Yongbin Bao Cha Ersi Bilige Sudu Sicheng Wei Jiquan Zhang Zhijun Tong Xingpeng Liu |
| author_sort | Teri Gele |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Drought, affects agricultural production and winter wheat, a crucial staple crop, is continuously exposed to drought stress in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, which has notable implications for global food security. Here, we used the 1981–2020 meteorological datasets to calculate the monthly standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and combined this with the standard deviation ellipses and the geodetector model to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of drought occurrence, its evolution, and the potential drivers of different drought levels across the growth stages of winter wheat. The results showed that (1) drought primarily occurred during the greening-jointing to booting-heading stages of winter wheat, particularly in regions, such as Hebei, where mild and moderate droughts were more frequent, whereas severe and extreme droughts were concentrated during the booting-heading stage; (2) the spatial evolution of drought revealed a gradual expansion from the southern to the central and northern regions (from Anhui to Henan, Shandong, and Hebei) as the growth stages progressed. Drought was more widespread in the later growth stages, with the affected area of moderate drought being four times larger than in the early stages. (3) Geodetector analysis revealed that precipitation and minimum temperature notably influenced drought occurrence. Interaction analysis highlighted that the combination of precipitation with soil type and minimum temperature significantly enhanced the explanatory power of drought occurrence. The explanatory power for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts increased by 0.08, 0.16, and 0.13, respectively, emphasizing the importance of these interactions. The interaction between precipitation and minimum temperature strongly influenced severe and extreme drought occurrences. These findings provide a scientific foundation and practical insight for drought risk assessment and agricultural management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-137a95879e034af6986b1e6e35935e71 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-137a95879e034af6986b1e6e35935e712025-08-20T02:46:09ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832025-08-0131710964010.1016/j.agwat.2025.109640Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, ChinaTeri Gele0Yongbin Bao1Cha Ersi2Bilige Sudu3Sicheng Wei4Jiquan Zhang5Zhijun Tong6Xingpeng Liu7School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Changchun 130024, China; Jilin Province Science and Technology Innovation Center of Agro-meteorological disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Changchun 130024, China; Jilin Province Science and Technology Innovation Center of Agro-meteorological disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention, Changchun 130024, China; Corresponding author at: School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China.School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, ChinaDrought, affects agricultural production and winter wheat, a crucial staple crop, is continuously exposed to drought stress in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, which has notable implications for global food security. Here, we used the 1981–2020 meteorological datasets to calculate the monthly standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and combined this with the standard deviation ellipses and the geodetector model to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of drought occurrence, its evolution, and the potential drivers of different drought levels across the growth stages of winter wheat. The results showed that (1) drought primarily occurred during the greening-jointing to booting-heading stages of winter wheat, particularly in regions, such as Hebei, where mild and moderate droughts were more frequent, whereas severe and extreme droughts were concentrated during the booting-heading stage; (2) the spatial evolution of drought revealed a gradual expansion from the southern to the central and northern regions (from Anhui to Henan, Shandong, and Hebei) as the growth stages progressed. Drought was more widespread in the later growth stages, with the affected area of moderate drought being four times larger than in the early stages. (3) Geodetector analysis revealed that precipitation and minimum temperature notably influenced drought occurrence. Interaction analysis highlighted that the combination of precipitation with soil type and minimum temperature significantly enhanced the explanatory power of drought occurrence. The explanatory power for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts increased by 0.08, 0.16, and 0.13, respectively, emphasizing the importance of these interactions. The interaction between precipitation and minimum temperature strongly influenced severe and extreme drought occurrences. These findings provide a scientific foundation and practical insight for drought risk assessment and agricultural management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425003543SPEIDrought levelWinter wheatGrowth stageGeodetector |
| spellingShingle | Teri Gele Yongbin Bao Cha Ersi Bilige Sudu Sicheng Wei Jiquan Zhang Zhijun Tong Xingpeng Liu Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China Agricultural Water Management SPEI Drought level Winter wheat Growth stage Geodetector |
| title | Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China |
| title_full | Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China |
| title_fullStr | Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China |
| title_short | Occurrence, evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China |
| title_sort | occurrence evolution and causes of different drought levels affecting winter wheat in the huang huai hai plain china |
| topic | SPEI Drought level Winter wheat Growth stage Geodetector |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425003543 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT terigele occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina AT yongbinbao occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina AT chaersi occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina AT biligesudu occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina AT sichengwei occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina AT jiquanzhang occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina AT zhijuntong occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina AT xingpengliu occurrenceevolutionandcausesofdifferentdroughtlevelsaffectingwinterwheatinthehuanghuaihaiplainchina |