Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality
Abstract Analysis of a suite of global climate model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, our results demonstrate a progressive strengthening of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) with rising CO2 concentrations, a trend that persists as CO2 declines, follo...
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3 |
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| author | Wen Zhang Weichen Tao Gang Huang Kaiming Hu Xia Qu Ya Wang Haosu Tang Suqin Zhang |
| author_facet | Wen Zhang Weichen Tao Gang Huang Kaiming Hu Xia Qu Ya Wang Haosu Tang Suqin Zhang |
| author_sort | Wen Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Analysis of a suite of global climate model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, our results demonstrate a progressive strengthening of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) with rising CO2 concentrations, a trend that persists as CO2 declines, followed by gradual recovery without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The overshoot of the WNPAC in the CO2 RD phase is highly correlated with the enhanced anomalous Maritime Continent (MC) convection, which influences WNPAC through reinforced Kelvin wave response or local Hadley circulation adjustment. This enhanced convection is attributed to increased Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient associated with strengthened MC warming and accelerated decay of El Niño in the Central Pacific, ultimately linked to climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern-related air-sea processes. The overshoot of the WNPAC during the CO2 RD phase may exacerbate flood and high temperature risks in densely populated East Asia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1361181583604d5aa3e4bd3bb7a1a855 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-1361181583604d5aa3e4bd3bb7a1a8552025-08-20T01:59:40ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222024-12-017111310.1038/s41612-024-00871-3Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutralityWen Zhang0Weichen Tao1Gang Huang2Kaiming Hu3Xia Qu4Ya Wang5Haosu Tang6Suqin Zhang7State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Geography, University of SheffieldFaculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal UniversityAbstract Analysis of a suite of global climate model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, our results demonstrate a progressive strengthening of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) with rising CO2 concentrations, a trend that persists as CO2 declines, followed by gradual recovery without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The overshoot of the WNPAC in the CO2 RD phase is highly correlated with the enhanced anomalous Maritime Continent (MC) convection, which influences WNPAC through reinforced Kelvin wave response or local Hadley circulation adjustment. This enhanced convection is attributed to increased Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient associated with strengthened MC warming and accelerated decay of El Niño in the Central Pacific, ultimately linked to climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern-related air-sea processes. The overshoot of the WNPAC during the CO2 RD phase may exacerbate flood and high temperature risks in densely populated East Asia.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3 |
| spellingShingle | Wen Zhang Weichen Tao Gang Huang Kaiming Hu Xia Qu Ya Wang Haosu Tang Suqin Zhang Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality |
| title_full | Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality |
| title_fullStr | Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality |
| title_short | Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality |
| title_sort | ongoing intensification of anomalous western north pacific anticyclone during post el nino summer with achieved carbon neutrality |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3 |
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