Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and Future
The continental United States is a global hotspot of severe thunderstorms and therefore is particularly vulnerable to social and economic damages from high-impact severe convective weather (SCW), such as tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, and large hail. However, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal clim...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2024-11-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/12/1444 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850240274244042752 |
|---|---|
| author | Changhai Liu Kyoko Ikeda Roy Rasmussen |
| author_facet | Changhai Liu Kyoko Ikeda Roy Rasmussen |
| author_sort | Changhai Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The continental United States is a global hotspot of severe thunderstorms and therefore is particularly vulnerable to social and economic damages from high-impact severe convective weather (SCW), such as tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, and large hail. However, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal climatology and variability of SCW occurrence is still lacking, and the potential change in SCW frequency and intensity in response to anthropogenic climate warming is highly uncertain due to deficient and sparse historical records and the global and regional climate model’s inability to resolve thunderstorms. This study investigates SCW in the Central and Eastern United States in spring and early summer for the current and future warmed climate using two multi-year continental-scale convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. The pair of simulations consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during October 2000–September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. A proxy based on composite reflectivity and updraft helicity threshold is applied to infer the simulated SCW occurrence. Results indicate that the retrospective simulation captures reasonably well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of the observed SCW events, with an exception of an overestimate along the Atlantic and Gulf coast. In a warmer-moister future, most regions experience intensified SCW activity, most notably in the early-middle spring, with the largest percentage increase in the foothills and higher latitudes. In addition, a shift of simulated radar reflectivity toward higher values, in association with the significant thermodynamic environmental response to climatic warming, potentially increases the SCW severity and resultant damage. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-13120f769ca14a209bb18deea8745f12 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-13120f769ca14a209bb18deea8745f122025-08-20T02:00:54ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-11-011512144410.3390/atmos15121444Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and FutureChanghai Liu0Kyoko Ikeda1Roy Rasmussen2NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USANSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USANSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USAThe continental United States is a global hotspot of severe thunderstorms and therefore is particularly vulnerable to social and economic damages from high-impact severe convective weather (SCW), such as tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, and large hail. However, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal climatology and variability of SCW occurrence is still lacking, and the potential change in SCW frequency and intensity in response to anthropogenic climate warming is highly uncertain due to deficient and sparse historical records and the global and regional climate model’s inability to resolve thunderstorms. This study investigates SCW in the Central and Eastern United States in spring and early summer for the current and future warmed climate using two multi-year continental-scale convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. The pair of simulations consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during October 2000–September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. A proxy based on composite reflectivity and updraft helicity threshold is applied to infer the simulated SCW occurrence. Results indicate that the retrospective simulation captures reasonably well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of the observed SCW events, with an exception of an overestimate along the Atlantic and Gulf coast. In a warmer-moister future, most regions experience intensified SCW activity, most notably in the early-middle spring, with the largest percentage increase in the foothills and higher latitudes. In addition, a shift of simulated radar reflectivity toward higher values, in association with the significant thermodynamic environmental response to climatic warming, potentially increases the SCW severity and resultant damage.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/12/1444severe convective weatherthunderstormconvection-permittingregional climate simulationpseudo global warming |
| spellingShingle | Changhai Liu Kyoko Ikeda Roy Rasmussen Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and Future Atmosphere severe convective weather thunderstorm convection-permitting regional climate simulation pseudo global warming |
| title | Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and Future |
| title_full | Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and Future |
| title_fullStr | Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and Future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and Future |
| title_short | Severe Convective Weather in the Central and Eastern United States: Present and Future |
| title_sort | severe convective weather in the central and eastern united states present and future |
| topic | severe convective weather thunderstorm convection-permitting regional climate simulation pseudo global warming |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/12/1444 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT changhailiu severeconvectiveweatherinthecentralandeasternunitedstatespresentandfuture AT kyokoikeda severeconvectiveweatherinthecentralandeasternunitedstatespresentandfuture AT royrasmussen severeconvectiveweatherinthecentralandeasternunitedstatespresentandfuture |