Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels
Abstract Probabilities of coastal extreme water levels (EWLs) are increasing as sea levels rise. Using a time‐dependent statistical model on tide gauge data along U.S. and Pacific Basin coastlines, we show that EWL probability distributions also shift on an annual basis from climate forcing and long...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108864 |
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| author | William V. Sweet Ayesha S. Genz Melisa Menendez John J. Marra Jayantha Obeysekera |
| author_facet | William V. Sweet Ayesha S. Genz Melisa Menendez John J. Marra Jayantha Obeysekera |
| author_sort | William V. Sweet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Probabilities of coastal extreme water levels (EWLs) are increasing as sea levels rise. Using a time‐dependent statistical model on tide gauge data along U.S. and Pacific Basin coastlines, we show that EWL probability distributions also shift on an annual basis from climate forcing and long‐period tidal cycles. In some regions, combined variability (>15 cm) can be as large or larger than the amount of sea level rise (SLR) experienced over the past 30 years and projected over the next 30 years. Considering SLR and variability by 2050 at a location like La Jolla, California suggests a moderate‐level (damaging) flood today with a 50‐year return level (2% annual chance) would occur about 3–4 times a year during an El Nino nearing the peak of the nodal tide cycle. If interannual variability is overlooked, SLR related impacts could be more severe than anticipated based solely upon decadal‐scale projections. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-12c99436b27a4bcc9a7b2180bda5f494 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-12c99436b27a4bcc9a7b2180bda5f4942025-08-20T03:49:46ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-07-015114n/an/a10.1029/2024GL108864Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water LevelsWilliam V. Sweet0Ayesha S. Genz1Melisa Menendez2John J. Marra3Jayantha Obeysekera4National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service Silver Spring MD USANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information Honolulu HI USAIHCantabria—Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria Santander SpainNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information Honolulu HI USASea Level Solutions Center Florida International University Miami FL USAAbstract Probabilities of coastal extreme water levels (EWLs) are increasing as sea levels rise. Using a time‐dependent statistical model on tide gauge data along U.S. and Pacific Basin coastlines, we show that EWL probability distributions also shift on an annual basis from climate forcing and long‐period tidal cycles. In some regions, combined variability (>15 cm) can be as large or larger than the amount of sea level rise (SLR) experienced over the past 30 years and projected over the next 30 years. Considering SLR and variability by 2050 at a location like La Jolla, California suggests a moderate‐level (damaging) flood today with a 50‐year return level (2% annual chance) would occur about 3–4 times a year during an El Nino nearing the peak of the nodal tide cycle. If interannual variability is overlooked, SLR related impacts could be more severe than anticipated based solely upon decadal‐scale projections.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108864sea level risevariabilitytide gaugetime dependent modelflooding |
| spellingShingle | William V. Sweet Ayesha S. Genz Melisa Menendez John J. Marra Jayantha Obeysekera Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels Geophysical Research Letters sea level rise variability tide gauge time dependent model flooding |
| title | Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels |
| title_full | Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels |
| title_fullStr | Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels |
| title_short | Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels |
| title_sort | implications of variability and trends in coastal extreme water levels |
| topic | sea level rise variability tide gauge time dependent model flooding |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108864 |
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