Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic model
Abstract Purpose To develop and validate a predictive model for stent patency following a palliative self-expandable metallic stent (SEMS) for primary malignant colonic obstruction. Methods Patients with primary malignant colonic obstruction who underwent SEMS treatment were included in this study....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2025-04-01
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| Series: | World Journal of Surgical Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12957-025-03782-6 |
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| author | Yuan Wan Meng-sha Zou Zhao-fei Zeng Xiao-zheng Cao Huan-hua Wu Bo Zhang |
| author_facet | Yuan Wan Meng-sha Zou Zhao-fei Zeng Xiao-zheng Cao Huan-hua Wu Bo Zhang |
| author_sort | Yuan Wan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Purpose To develop and validate a predictive model for stent patency following a palliative self-expandable metallic stent (SEMS) for primary malignant colonic obstruction. Methods Patients with primary malignant colonic obstruction who underwent SEMS treatment were included in this study. One retrospective set (N = 121) was used to develop and validate the predictive model. The clinical features were collected and subjected to Cox regression analyses. The final predictive model was displayed as a nomogram, which was validated in an independent set (N = 36). Results The clinical prognostic model was composed of pre-chemotherapy (P < 0.001), time of obstruction (P = 0.005), and post-chemotherapy (P < 0.001). The time-dependent area under the curve were 0.898 at 30-day, 0.778 at 90-day, 0.728 at 180-day, and 0.844 at 360-day in the training set; and 0.654 at 30-day, 0.745 at 90-day, 0.777 at 180-day, and 0.740 at 360-day in the validation set. Moreover, this easy-to-use and individualized nomogram was exclusively applied to predict stent patency and showed a favorable prognostic performance in the training and validation sets. Conclusion The nomogram developed in this study accurately predicts stent patency and shows promise for personalized SEMS management. However, external validation must be prioritized before clinical implementation to ensure generalizability and safety. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-129b65087a1b4bd482937070a97ab93d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1477-7819 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | World Journal of Surgical Oncology |
| spelling | doaj-art-129b65087a1b4bd482937070a97ab93d2025-08-20T02:12:06ZengBMCWorld Journal of Surgical Oncology1477-78192025-04-0123111110.1186/s12957-025-03782-6Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic modelYuan Wan0Meng-sha Zou1Zhao-fei Zeng2Xiao-zheng Cao3Huan-hua Wu4Bo Zhang5Department of Interventional Radiology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen UniversityDepartment of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen UniversityBiomedical Innovation Center, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen UniversityCentral laboratory, The Affiliated Shunde Hospital of Jinan UniversityCentral laboratory, The Affiliated Shunde Hospital of Jinan UniversityDepartment of Interventional Radiology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen UniversityAbstract Purpose To develop and validate a predictive model for stent patency following a palliative self-expandable metallic stent (SEMS) for primary malignant colonic obstruction. Methods Patients with primary malignant colonic obstruction who underwent SEMS treatment were included in this study. One retrospective set (N = 121) was used to develop and validate the predictive model. The clinical features were collected and subjected to Cox regression analyses. The final predictive model was displayed as a nomogram, which was validated in an independent set (N = 36). Results The clinical prognostic model was composed of pre-chemotherapy (P < 0.001), time of obstruction (P = 0.005), and post-chemotherapy (P < 0.001). The time-dependent area under the curve were 0.898 at 30-day, 0.778 at 90-day, 0.728 at 180-day, and 0.844 at 360-day in the training set; and 0.654 at 30-day, 0.745 at 90-day, 0.777 at 180-day, and 0.740 at 360-day in the validation set. Moreover, this easy-to-use and individualized nomogram was exclusively applied to predict stent patency and showed a favorable prognostic performance in the training and validation sets. Conclusion The nomogram developed in this study accurately predicts stent patency and shows promise for personalized SEMS management. However, external validation must be prioritized before clinical implementation to ensure generalizability and safety.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12957-025-03782-6Primary malignant colonic obstructionStent patencyNomogramPrognosisLASSO Cox regression |
| spellingShingle | Yuan Wan Meng-sha Zou Zhao-fei Zeng Xiao-zheng Cao Huan-hua Wu Bo Zhang Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic model World Journal of Surgical Oncology Primary malignant colonic obstruction Stent patency Nomogram Prognosis LASSO Cox regression |
| title | Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic model |
| title_full | Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic model |
| title_fullStr | Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic model |
| title_short | Individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction: development and validation of a prognostic model |
| title_sort | individualized prediction of stent patency in malignant colonic obstruction development and validation of a prognostic model |
| topic | Primary malignant colonic obstruction Stent patency Nomogram Prognosis LASSO Cox regression |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12957-025-03782-6 |
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