Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China
Michelia lacei W.W. Smith, a magnolia species categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is subject to severe disturbance. We carried out field surveys and a review of literature records to present a detailed description of the current status of M. lacei. We then predicted the potential distrib...
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Cambridge University Press
2024-09-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0030605323001783/type/journal_article |
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| author | Yang Liu Lei Cai Weibang Sun |
| author_facet | Yang Liu Lei Cai Weibang Sun |
| author_sort | Yang Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Michelia lacei W.W. Smith, a magnolia species categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is subject to severe disturbance. We carried out field surveys and a review of literature records to present a detailed description of the current status of M. lacei. We then predicted the potential distribution of M. lacei under different climatic scenarios based on 60 occurrence records (53 recorded during our field surveys and 7 earlier records) and 19 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database. We selected 18 locations and four bioclimatic variables for model training. Temperature seasonality and annual temperature range were the most influential variables for predicting the potential distribution of the species. We used MaxEnt to model distribution under current climate conditions and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios in four future time periods to determine the effects of future climate change on the habitat suitable for the species. We predict areas of moderately and highly suitable habitat will gradually decrease over time. We recommend increased in situ and ex situ conservation efforts to mitigate this habitat decline and protect populations of M. lacei. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1294977f151c4aeb9200128f6b02f144 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0030-6053 1365-3008 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-09-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Oryx |
| spelling | doaj-art-1294977f151c4aeb9200128f6b02f1442025-01-16T21:50:48ZengCambridge University PressOryx0030-60531365-30082024-09-015863164010.1017/S0030605323001783Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, ChinaYang Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1521-6093Lei Cai1Weibang Sun2https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5246-9226Yunnan Key Laboratory for Integrative Conservation of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations, and Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaYunnan Key Laboratory for Integrative Conservation of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations, and Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaYunnan Key Laboratory for Integrative Conservation of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations, and Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaMichelia lacei W.W. Smith, a magnolia species categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is subject to severe disturbance. We carried out field surveys and a review of literature records to present a detailed description of the current status of M. lacei. We then predicted the potential distribution of M. lacei under different climatic scenarios based on 60 occurrence records (53 recorded during our field surveys and 7 earlier records) and 19 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database. We selected 18 locations and four bioclimatic variables for model training. Temperature seasonality and annual temperature range were the most influential variables for predicting the potential distribution of the species. We used MaxEnt to model distribution under current climate conditions and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios in four future time periods to determine the effects of future climate change on the habitat suitable for the species. We predict areas of moderately and highly suitable habitat will gradually decrease over time. We recommend increased in situ and ex situ conservation efforts to mitigate this habitat decline and protect populations of M. lacei.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0030605323001783/type/journal_articleChinaclimate changeconservation statusex situ conservationMaxEntmaximum entropy modelMichelia laceiPlant Species with Extremely Small Populations |
| spellingShingle | Yang Liu Lei Cai Weibang Sun Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China Oryx China climate change conservation status ex situ conservation MaxEnt maximum entropy model Michelia lacei Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations |
| title | Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China |
| title_full | Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China |
| title_fullStr | Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China |
| title_short | Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China |
| title_sort | current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of michelia lacei a plant species with extremely small populations in yunnan china |
| topic | China climate change conservation status ex situ conservation MaxEnt maximum entropy model Michelia lacei Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0030605323001783/type/journal_article |
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