Epidemiological trends and forecasting of tuberculosis burden in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: Evidence from global burden of disease 1990–2021
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern. Although the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have relatively lower TB incidence rates, they face unique challenges, particularly with a large migrant workforce from TB-endemic regions. Understanding trends in TB burd...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Infection and Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034125000851 |
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| Summary: | Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern. Although the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have relatively lower TB incidence rates, they face unique challenges, particularly with a large migrant workforce from TB-endemic regions. Understanding trends in TB burden in these countries is essential for guiding public health strategies. Methods: We analyzed TB trends in GCC countries from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression assessed temporal trends, and ARIMA modeling was used to forecast future TB incidence, mortality, and DALYs. The metrics considered age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), DALYs rate (ASDR), and incidence rates (ASIR). Data visualizations, including choropleth maps and trend graphs, were also created using R and MS Excel. Results: From 1990–2021, TB incidence, mortality, and DALYs showed a steady decline across the GCC countries. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of −5.39 %, while the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased at a slightly higher rate of −5.50 %. Forecasting through 2031 predicts a continued decline: the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) will fall from 28.4 per 100,000 in 2022–5.4 by 2031, and mortality is expected to decline from 3.87 per 100,000 to 2.39 over the same period. DALYs are projected to decrease from 103.5 in 2022–62 by 2031. Countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia showed significant improvements, with Qatar achieving a 95.56 % reduction in mortality. However, the UAE with a 61.18 % reduction in incidence and DALYs, showed a 26.71 % increase in mortality. Conclusions: TB control in GCC countries shows positive trends, reflecting successful public health interventions. However, challenges remain, particularly the high prevalence of TB among migrant populations. Continued efforts and tailored interventions are essential to sustain progress toward TB elimination. |
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| ISSN: | 1876-0341 |