A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information
Emergency decision-making (EDM) is of paramount importance, especially when the emergency occurs. The evolution nature of the emergency, such as multistage, uncertainty, dynamic, and information updating, has been playing a key role in the dynamic emergency decision-making process. However, most exi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5535925 |
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| author | Yong Liu |
| author_facet | Yong Liu |
| author_sort | Yong Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Emergency decision-making (EDM) is of paramount importance, especially when the emergency occurs. The evolution nature of the emergency, such as multistage, uncertainty, dynamic, and information updating, has been playing a key role in the dynamic emergency decision-making process. However, most existing studies ignored the aforementioned nature. Our approach accounts for the dynamics inherent to a real emergency decision-making process and presents a multistage dynamic emergency decision-making (MSDEDM) procedure of a dynamic programming model based on decision-makers’ psychological reference satisfactory degree. Firstly, interval-valued trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVTrIFNs) are used to depict the relevant fuzziness and uncertainty of information. Secondly, by considering the dynamic evolution process of emergency and the decision-makers’ psychological reference expectation effect, the principle of MSDEDM approach is presented. Based on the analysis, the dynamic model on the new psychological reference satisfactory parameter formula is presented to obtain the optimal satisfaction and weight of each stage. Then, the value utility function based on the DMs’ risk attitude is proposed to obtain the comprehensive value of each emergency alternative for each stage and achieve the ranking results of each stage. Furthermore, a case study involving the transportation emergency decision-making problem demonstrates that the proposed method can achieve selection of the optimal alternatives for each stage, as well as adjustment of the alternatives for neighbouring stages. Finally, the comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis for the results are used to further verify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-11d9ca6da8e94fba8655a3fdbcccdf7d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-11d9ca6da8e94fba8655a3fdbcccdf7d2025-08-20T02:01:53ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952021-01-01202110.1155/2021/55359255535925A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty InformationYong Liu0Laboratory of Management Simulation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, ChinaEmergency decision-making (EDM) is of paramount importance, especially when the emergency occurs. The evolution nature of the emergency, such as multistage, uncertainty, dynamic, and information updating, has been playing a key role in the dynamic emergency decision-making process. However, most existing studies ignored the aforementioned nature. Our approach accounts for the dynamics inherent to a real emergency decision-making process and presents a multistage dynamic emergency decision-making (MSDEDM) procedure of a dynamic programming model based on decision-makers’ psychological reference satisfactory degree. Firstly, interval-valued trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVTrIFNs) are used to depict the relevant fuzziness and uncertainty of information. Secondly, by considering the dynamic evolution process of emergency and the decision-makers’ psychological reference expectation effect, the principle of MSDEDM approach is presented. Based on the analysis, the dynamic model on the new psychological reference satisfactory parameter formula is presented to obtain the optimal satisfaction and weight of each stage. Then, the value utility function based on the DMs’ risk attitude is proposed to obtain the comprehensive value of each emergency alternative for each stage and achieve the ranking results of each stage. Furthermore, a case study involving the transportation emergency decision-making problem demonstrates that the proposed method can achieve selection of the optimal alternatives for each stage, as well as adjustment of the alternatives for neighbouring stages. Finally, the comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis for the results are used to further verify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5535925 |
| spellingShingle | Yong Liu A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information |
| title_full | A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information |
| title_fullStr | A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information |
| title_short | A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information |
| title_sort | multistage dynamic emergency decision making method considering the satisfaction under uncertainty information |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5535925 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yongliu amultistagedynamicemergencydecisionmakingmethodconsideringthesatisfactionunderuncertaintyinformation AT yongliu multistagedynamicemergencydecisionmakingmethodconsideringthesatisfactionunderuncertaintyinformation |