Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods
In 2008, the seasonal forecast issued at the Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa (PRESAO) announced a high risk of above-normal rainfall for the July–September rainy season. With probabilities for above-normal rainfall of 0.45, this forecast indicated noteworthy increases in the risk of h...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2012-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Geophysics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/986016 |
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| author | Arame Tall Simon J. Mason Maarten van Aalst Pablo Suarez Youcef Ait-Chellouche Adama A. Diallo Lisette Braman |
| author_facet | Arame Tall Simon J. Mason Maarten van Aalst Pablo Suarez Youcef Ait-Chellouche Adama A. Diallo Lisette Braman |
| author_sort | Arame Tall |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In 2008, the seasonal forecast issued at the Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa (PRESAO) announced a high risk of above-normal rainfall for the July–September rainy season. With probabilities for above-normal rainfall of 0.45, this forecast indicated noteworthy increases in the risk of heavy rainfall. When this information reached the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) West and Central Africa Office, it led to significant changes in the organization’s flood response operations. The IFRC regional office requested funds in advance of anticipated floods, prepositioned disaster relief items in strategic locations across West Africa to benefit up to 9,500 families, updated its flood contingency plans, and alerted vulnerable communities and decision-makers across the region. This forecast-based preparedness resulted in a decrease in the number of lives, property, and livelihoods lost to floods, compared to just one year prior in 2007 when similar floods claimed above 300 lives in the region. This article demonstrates how a science-based early warning informed decisions and saved lives by triggering action in anticipation of forecast events. It analyses what it took to move decision-makers to action, based on seasonal climate information, and to overcome traditional barriers to the uptake of seasonal climate information in the region, providing evidence that these barriers can be overcome. While some institutional, communication and technical barriers were addressed in 2008, many challenges remain. Scientists and humanitarians need to build more common ground. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-11d5629b5e1a4fb1becc58d38f189d79 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1687-885X 1687-8868 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2012-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Geophysics |
| spelling | doaj-art-11d5629b5e1a4fb1becc58d38f189d792025-08-20T02:01:55ZengWileyInternational Journal of Geophysics1687-885X1687-88682012-01-01201210.1155/2012/986016986016Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa FloodsArame Tall0Simon J. Mason1Maarten van Aalst2Pablo Suarez3Youcef Ait-Chellouche4Adama A. Diallo5Lisette Braman6Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), 1717 Massachusetts Avenue, N. W., Office 715, Washington, DC 20036, USAInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY, USARed Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The NetherlandsRed Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The NetherlandsUNISDR Africa Regional Office, Nairobi, KenyaAfrican Center for Meteorological Applications to Development (ACMAD), Niamey, NigerRed Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The NetherlandsIn 2008, the seasonal forecast issued at the Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa (PRESAO) announced a high risk of above-normal rainfall for the July–September rainy season. With probabilities for above-normal rainfall of 0.45, this forecast indicated noteworthy increases in the risk of heavy rainfall. When this information reached the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) West and Central Africa Office, it led to significant changes in the organization’s flood response operations. The IFRC regional office requested funds in advance of anticipated floods, prepositioned disaster relief items in strategic locations across West Africa to benefit up to 9,500 families, updated its flood contingency plans, and alerted vulnerable communities and decision-makers across the region. This forecast-based preparedness resulted in a decrease in the number of lives, property, and livelihoods lost to floods, compared to just one year prior in 2007 when similar floods claimed above 300 lives in the region. This article demonstrates how a science-based early warning informed decisions and saved lives by triggering action in anticipation of forecast events. It analyses what it took to move decision-makers to action, based on seasonal climate information, and to overcome traditional barriers to the uptake of seasonal climate information in the region, providing evidence that these barriers can be overcome. While some institutional, communication and technical barriers were addressed in 2008, many challenges remain. Scientists and humanitarians need to build more common ground.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/986016 |
| spellingShingle | Arame Tall Simon J. Mason Maarten van Aalst Pablo Suarez Youcef Ait-Chellouche Adama A. Diallo Lisette Braman Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods International Journal of Geophysics |
| title | Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods |
| title_full | Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods |
| title_fullStr | Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods |
| title_short | Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods |
| title_sort | using seasonal climate forecasts to guide disaster management the red cross experience during the 2008 west africa floods |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/986016 |
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