Predicting mortality in geriatric patients with peptic ulcer bleeding: a retrospective comparative study of four scoring systems
Background Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in geriatric patients. Risk stratification tools such as AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS), T-score, and Age, Blood tests, and Comorbidities (ABC) score are frequently used to predict outcomes i...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
PeerJ Inc.
2025-03-01
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| Series: | PeerJ |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/19090.pdf |
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| Summary: | Background Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in geriatric patients. Risk stratification tools such as AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS), T-score, and Age, Blood tests, and Comorbidities (ABC) score are frequently used to predict outcomes in PUB patients. This study aims to compare the predictive performance of these four scoring systems in geriatric patients with PUB. Methods This retrospective cohort study included patients aged 65 years and older who were diagnosed with PUB between January 1, 2019, and January 1, 2024, in a tertiary care hospital. Data collected included demographic information, clinical presentation, laboratory results, and comorbidities. AIMS65, GBS, T-Score, and ABC score were calculated for each patient. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results A total of 315 patients were included in the study, with an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 7.9%. AIMS65 had the highest area under the curve (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.829), followed by the ABC score (AUROC: 0.775). The GBS (AUROC: 0.694) and T-score (AUROC: 0.526) demonstrated lower predictive performance. Pairwise comparisons showed a statistically significant difference between the AIMS65 and GBS (p = 0.0214). AIMS65 was the most accurate predictor of in-hospital mortality in geriatric PUB patients. Conclusion The AIMS65 and ABC scoring systems are more effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients with PUB compared to the GBS and T-Score. Implementing these tools in clinical practice could improve risk stratification and decision-making processes in managing high-risk elderly patients. |
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| ISSN: | 2167-8359 |