Predictability of European winter 2022/23
Abstract The boreal winter of 2022/23 was notable as a third consecutive winter in which La Niña had an influence on the European weather. The GloSea6 seasonal forecast system predicted a blocked circulation pattern in the North Atlantic in early winter (December), and then a transition through mid‐...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1275 |
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| author | Nicky Stringer Adam A. Scaife Chris Bulmer Paul Davies Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Sarah Ineson Jeff Knight Joseph Mancell Peter McLean Doug Smith Brent Walker Christopher Walsh |
| author_facet | Nicky Stringer Adam A. Scaife Chris Bulmer Paul Davies Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Sarah Ineson Jeff Knight Joseph Mancell Peter McLean Doug Smith Brent Walker Christopher Walsh |
| author_sort | Nicky Stringer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The boreal winter of 2022/23 was notable as a third consecutive winter in which La Niña had an influence on the European weather. The GloSea6 seasonal forecast system predicted a blocked circulation pattern in the North Atlantic in early winter (December), and then a transition through mid‐winter (January) into a more zonal pattern in late winter (February), consistent with the canonical La Niña teleconnection pattern seen previously. The seasonal forecast for the UK was an increased likelihood of near average temperatures, and drier‐ and calmer‐than‐average conditions. Both the predicted broad‐scale circulation patterns and UK winter mean weather conditions verified well against observations, and we show that seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last 10 winters show similar skill to previously reported hindcasts. Throughout the winter, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was particularly active. On three occasions, it exhibited strong phases 6 and 7. There was also a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that occurred on 16th February. This was followed by colder conditions and associated impacts similar to the canonical negative NAO response over the UK, although the main impact fell in March and so did not affect the winter (December–January–February) mean conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-111ca48fb8864ca7a3aa945916000e2e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-111ca48fb8864ca7a3aa945916000e2e2024-12-02T08:39:27ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2024-12-012512n/an/a10.1002/asl.1275Predictability of European winter 2022/23Nicky Stringer0Adam A. Scaife1Chris Bulmer2Paul Davies3Nick Dunstone4Margaret Gordon5Sarah Ineson6Jeff Knight7Joseph Mancell8Peter McLean9Doug Smith10Brent Walker11Christopher Walsh12Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKAbstract The boreal winter of 2022/23 was notable as a third consecutive winter in which La Niña had an influence on the European weather. The GloSea6 seasonal forecast system predicted a blocked circulation pattern in the North Atlantic in early winter (December), and then a transition through mid‐winter (January) into a more zonal pattern in late winter (February), consistent with the canonical La Niña teleconnection pattern seen previously. The seasonal forecast for the UK was an increased likelihood of near average temperatures, and drier‐ and calmer‐than‐average conditions. Both the predicted broad‐scale circulation patterns and UK winter mean weather conditions verified well against observations, and we show that seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last 10 winters show similar skill to previously reported hindcasts. Throughout the winter, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was particularly active. On three occasions, it exhibited strong phases 6 and 7. There was also a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that occurred on 16th February. This was followed by colder conditions and associated impacts similar to the canonical negative NAO response over the UK, although the main impact fell in March and so did not affect the winter (December–January–February) mean conditions.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1275mid‐latitudeseasonalweather and climate prediction |
| spellingShingle | Nicky Stringer Adam A. Scaife Chris Bulmer Paul Davies Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Sarah Ineson Jeff Knight Joseph Mancell Peter McLean Doug Smith Brent Walker Christopher Walsh Predictability of European winter 2022/23 Atmospheric Science Letters mid‐latitude seasonal weather and climate prediction |
| title | Predictability of European winter 2022/23 |
| title_full | Predictability of European winter 2022/23 |
| title_fullStr | Predictability of European winter 2022/23 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictability of European winter 2022/23 |
| title_short | Predictability of European winter 2022/23 |
| title_sort | predictability of european winter 2022 23 |
| topic | mid‐latitude seasonal weather and climate prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1275 |
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