Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044

BackgroundLiver cancer (LC) is a major global health concern, being the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Older adults are more susceptible, though mortality rates for those over 70 are declining. However, disability from non-communicable diseases remains high. High body mass index (...

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Main Authors: Ke-Jie He, Wanyi Shu, Yanggang Hong
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-03-01
Series:Frontiers in Public Health
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1523578/full
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author Ke-Jie He
Wanyi Shu
Yanggang Hong
author_facet Ke-Jie He
Wanyi Shu
Yanggang Hong
author_sort Ke-Jie He
collection DOAJ
description BackgroundLiver cancer (LC) is a major global health concern, being the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Older adults are more susceptible, though mortality rates for those over 70 are declining. However, disability from non-communicable diseases remains high. High body mass index (BMI) is a notable risk factor for LC, with high BMI-related liver cancer (HB-LC) being a major concern.MethodsThis study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 dataset to assess the impact of HB-LC on individuals aged 70 and older from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts extending to 2044. Disease burden across socio-demographic index (SDI) regions was evaluated using age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to analyze DALY trends and demographic influences, and decomposition analysis assessed the effects of population aging, growth, and epidemiological shifts.ResultsOur findings revealed significant geographical disparities in HB-LC mortality, with East Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of West Africa showing the highest rates. Global HB-LC DALYs increased by 2.49% annually, with low SDI regions experiencing recent acceleration. Gender disparity persisted, with males facing a steeper rise in HB-LC burden. Age-related DALY rates peaked in the 80–89 age groups, showing complex patterns across SDI regions. Epidemiological changes primarily drove the increased HB-LC burden in high SDI regions, while population growth was more significant in low SDI regions.ConclusionThis data analysis underscores necessity for region-specific public health strategies and demographic-focused interventions, enhancing surveillance and targeting efforts to mitigate the increasing burden of HB-LC among the older adults.
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spelling doaj-art-10de242e30ab4a84a2a055dee02ec64e2025-08-20T02:50:45ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652025-03-011310.3389/fpubh.2025.15235781523578Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044Ke-Jie He0Wanyi Shu1Yanggang Hong2The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, ChinaSchool of Ophthalmology & Optometry, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, ChinaThe Second School of Medicine, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, ChinaBackgroundLiver cancer (LC) is a major global health concern, being the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Older adults are more susceptible, though mortality rates for those over 70 are declining. However, disability from non-communicable diseases remains high. High body mass index (BMI) is a notable risk factor for LC, with high BMI-related liver cancer (HB-LC) being a major concern.MethodsThis study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 dataset to assess the impact of HB-LC on individuals aged 70 and older from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts extending to 2044. Disease burden across socio-demographic index (SDI) regions was evaluated using age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to analyze DALY trends and demographic influences, and decomposition analysis assessed the effects of population aging, growth, and epidemiological shifts.ResultsOur findings revealed significant geographical disparities in HB-LC mortality, with East Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of West Africa showing the highest rates. Global HB-LC DALYs increased by 2.49% annually, with low SDI regions experiencing recent acceleration. Gender disparity persisted, with males facing a steeper rise in HB-LC burden. Age-related DALY rates peaked in the 80–89 age groups, showing complex patterns across SDI regions. Epidemiological changes primarily drove the increased HB-LC burden in high SDI regions, while population growth was more significant in low SDI regions.ConclusionThis data analysis underscores necessity for region-specific public health strategies and demographic-focused interventions, enhancing surveillance and targeting efforts to mitigate the increasing burden of HB-LC among the older adults.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1523578/fullliver cancerage-standardized rateBMIGBD 2021disability-adjusted life years
spellingShingle Ke-Jie He
Wanyi Shu
Yanggang Hong
Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044
Frontiers in Public Health
liver cancer
age-standardized rate
BMI
GBD 2021
disability-adjusted life years
title Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044
title_full Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044
title_fullStr Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044
title_full_unstemmed Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044
title_short Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044
title_sort global regional and country burden of high bmi related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70 trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044
topic liver cancer
age-standardized rate
BMI
GBD 2021
disability-adjusted life years
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1523578/full
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AT yangganghong globalregionalandcountryburdenofhighbmirelatedlivercanceramongindividualsagedabove70trendsfrom1990to2021andprojectionsto2044