Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau
Desertification presents a significant ecological challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, posing a severe threat to regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study introduces an integrated framework for desertification vulnerability assessment, combining the MEDALUS model with...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/14/2389 |
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| author | Maolin Li Buyanbaatar Avirmed Ganbold Bayanmunkh Yilin Liu Yu Wang Xinyu Yang Yu Zhang Qiang Yu |
| author_facet | Maolin Li Buyanbaatar Avirmed Ganbold Bayanmunkh Yilin Liu Yu Wang Xinyu Yang Yu Zhang Qiang Yu |
| author_sort | Maolin Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Desertification presents a significant ecological challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, posing a severe threat to regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study introduces an integrated framework for desertification vulnerability assessment, combining the MEDALUS model with the XGBoost algorithm, to evaluate desertification dynamics across the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2020 and project future trends under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2030. The findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, desertification vulnerability was most pronounced in the southern and western regions of the plateau, with lower vulnerability observed in the northern and eastern areas. High-vulnerability zones expanded over time, highlighting the need for targeted and prioritized management efforts. (2) Climate factors—particularly temperature, wind speed, and precipitation—emerged as the dominant drivers of desertification, followed by soil characteristics and vegetation (NDVI). The influence of human activities on desertification became increasingly significant, stressing the need for improved land management and sustainable practices. (3) Future risks show that desertification vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau will intensify under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), with significant expansion of high vulnerability areas. Lower-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) may reduce some impacts, but high vulnerability will persist, highlighting the need for urgent climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-105efcc8dcdc4b41af9fd99cc32ac6d8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-105efcc8dcdc4b41af9fd99cc32ac6d82025-08-20T02:47:10ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922025-07-011714238910.3390/rs17142389Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian PlateauMaolin Li0Buyanbaatar Avirmed1Ganbold Bayanmunkh2Yilin Liu3Yu Wang4Xinyu Yang5Yu Zhang6Qiang Yu7College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaSchool of Agroecology, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Ulaanbaatar 999097, MongoliaSchool of Agroecology, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Ulaanbaatar 999097, MongoliaCollege of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaDesertification presents a significant ecological challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, posing a severe threat to regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study introduces an integrated framework for desertification vulnerability assessment, combining the MEDALUS model with the XGBoost algorithm, to evaluate desertification dynamics across the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2020 and project future trends under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2030. The findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, desertification vulnerability was most pronounced in the southern and western regions of the plateau, with lower vulnerability observed in the northern and eastern areas. High-vulnerability zones expanded over time, highlighting the need for targeted and prioritized management efforts. (2) Climate factors—particularly temperature, wind speed, and precipitation—emerged as the dominant drivers of desertification, followed by soil characteristics and vegetation (NDVI). The influence of human activities on desertification became increasingly significant, stressing the need for improved land management and sustainable practices. (3) Future risks show that desertification vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau will intensify under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), with significant expansion of high vulnerability areas. Lower-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) may reduce some impacts, but high vulnerability will persist, highlighting the need for urgent climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/14/2389desertificationMongolian PlateauMEDALUSXGBoost algorithm |
| spellingShingle | Maolin Li Buyanbaatar Avirmed Ganbold Bayanmunkh Yilin Liu Yu Wang Xinyu Yang Yu Zhang Qiang Yu Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau Remote Sensing desertification Mongolian Plateau MEDALUS XGBoost algorithm |
| title | Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau |
| title_full | Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau |
| title_fullStr | Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau |
| title_short | Unveiling Drivers and Projecting Future Risks of Desertification Vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau |
| title_sort | unveiling drivers and projecting future risks of desertification vulnerability in the mongolian plateau |
| topic | desertification Mongolian Plateau MEDALUS XGBoost algorithm |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/14/2389 |
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