Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levels

Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been extensively utilized for streamflow prediction, primarily in gauged watersheds using meteorological and historical streamflow data. However, its application in data-limited regions requires innovative approaches due to the reliance on extensive monitori...

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Main Authors: Young-Ho Seo, Jang Hyun Sung, Byung-Sik Kim, Junehyeong Park
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01464-7
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author Young-Ho Seo
Jang Hyun Sung
Byung-Sik Kim
Junehyeong Park
author_facet Young-Ho Seo
Jang Hyun Sung
Byung-Sik Kim
Junehyeong Park
author_sort Young-Ho Seo
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been extensively utilized for streamflow prediction, primarily in gauged watersheds using meteorological and historical streamflow data. However, its application in data-limited regions requires innovative approaches due to the reliance on extensive monitoring data. Physically based models, while comprehensive, are labor-intensive and inherently uncertain. Our study leveraged AI to address these limitations, focusing on direct streamflow drought estimation using statistical threshold levels without a physically based model. Models were developed and tested using inflow data and meteorological variables from four major South Korean dams. The Threshold Level Method (TLM) was applied to daily inflow data to define drought events, creating a time series for model training. We utilized the XGBoost algorithm, integrating comprehensive meteorological data to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the drought predictions. Our findings show that AI models can effectively identify and forecast streamflow droughts, even with limited streamflow data, by using meteorological inputs. The results demonstrated significant drought patterns and characteristics across different threshold levels and time resolutions. This application provides a robust framework for integrating advanced AI techniques in hydrological studies, offering practical insights into water resource management and drought planning, particularly in semi-gauged basins where baseline data is available but limited.
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spelling doaj-art-103e7e4bed9c4c7980f8621934df5e192025-08-20T03:16:31ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-05-0115112110.1038/s41598-025-01464-7Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levelsYoung-Ho Seo0Jang Hyun Sung1Byung-Sik Kim2Junehyeong Park3Environmental Technology Research Institute, Kangwon National UniversityDepartment of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National UniversityDepartment of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National UniversitySamcheok University-Industry Cooperation Foundation, Kangwon National UniversityAbstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been extensively utilized for streamflow prediction, primarily in gauged watersheds using meteorological and historical streamflow data. However, its application in data-limited regions requires innovative approaches due to the reliance on extensive monitoring data. Physically based models, while comprehensive, are labor-intensive and inherently uncertain. Our study leveraged AI to address these limitations, focusing on direct streamflow drought estimation using statistical threshold levels without a physically based model. Models were developed and tested using inflow data and meteorological variables from four major South Korean dams. The Threshold Level Method (TLM) was applied to daily inflow data to define drought events, creating a time series for model training. We utilized the XGBoost algorithm, integrating comprehensive meteorological data to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the drought predictions. Our findings show that AI models can effectively identify and forecast streamflow droughts, even with limited streamflow data, by using meteorological inputs. The results demonstrated significant drought patterns and characteristics across different threshold levels and time resolutions. This application provides a robust framework for integrating advanced AI techniques in hydrological studies, offering practical insights into water resource management and drought planning, particularly in semi-gauged basins where baseline data is available but limited.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01464-7
spellingShingle Young-Ho Seo
Jang Hyun Sung
Byung-Sik Kim
Junehyeong Park
Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levels
Scientific Reports
title Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levels
title_full Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levels
title_fullStr Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levels
title_full_unstemmed Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levels
title_short Machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of South Korea using threshold levels
title_sort machine learning approach for identifying and forecasting streamflow droughts in data limited basins of south korea using threshold levels
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01464-7
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