A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations
Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being discussed as a possible approach to reduce future global warming in addition to emission cuts, and numerous scenarios and Earth system model (ESM) experiments have been developed to explore its effectiveness and risks. Given the complex geopoli...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005455 |
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| author | Chenrui Diao Patrick W. Keys Curtis M. Bell Elizabeth A. Barnes James W. Hurrell |
| author_facet | Chenrui Diao Patrick W. Keys Curtis M. Bell Elizabeth A. Barnes James W. Hurrell |
| author_sort | Chenrui Diao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being discussed as a possible approach to reduce future global warming in addition to emission cuts, and numerous scenarios and Earth system model (ESM) experiments have been developed to explore its effectiveness and risks. Given the complex geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations among countries, global cooperation in SAI deployment will be challenging. Unilateral SAI deployment has thus been highlighted as an important research topic, although it has been explored very little in scenario design and ESM studies. Inspired by a novel game theory model and a newly developed framework for identifying geopolitically plausible SAI initiator(s), this paper builds a framework for integrating unilateral SAI scenario design, geopolitical game theory, ESM simulation, and climate analyses into a single decision loop. We design and simulate a geopolitically plausible scenario of the initiation of unilateral SAI using the Community Earth System Model, and explore two independent plausible unilateral SAI reaction scenarios following the climate storylines under the initiator scenario. Our work demonstrates an approach to explore the complex feedbacks between unilateral SAI deployment scenarios and the simulation of the subsequent climate storylines. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-101ddfe3b44c48b1a94f5c7d166da125 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-101ddfe3b44c48b1a94f5c7d166da1252025-08-20T02:30:05ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-05-01135n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005455A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System SimulationsChenrui Diao0Patrick W. Keys1Curtis M. Bell2Elizabeth A. Barnes3James W. Hurrell4Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USAInternational Programs United States Naval War College Newport RI USADepartment of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USAAbstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being discussed as a possible approach to reduce future global warming in addition to emission cuts, and numerous scenarios and Earth system model (ESM) experiments have been developed to explore its effectiveness and risks. Given the complex geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations among countries, global cooperation in SAI deployment will be challenging. Unilateral SAI deployment has thus been highlighted as an important research topic, although it has been explored very little in scenario design and ESM studies. Inspired by a novel game theory model and a newly developed framework for identifying geopolitically plausible SAI initiator(s), this paper builds a framework for integrating unilateral SAI scenario design, geopolitical game theory, ESM simulation, and climate analyses into a single decision loop. We design and simulate a geopolitically plausible scenario of the initiation of unilateral SAI using the Community Earth System Model, and explore two independent plausible unilateral SAI reaction scenarios following the climate storylines under the initiator scenario. Our work demonstrates an approach to explore the complex feedbacks between unilateral SAI deployment scenarios and the simulation of the subsequent climate storylines.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005455solar geoengineeringclimate modelinggeopolitical game theoryclimate changestratospheric aerosol injection |
| spellingShingle | Chenrui Diao Patrick W. Keys Curtis M. Bell Elizabeth A. Barnes James W. Hurrell A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations Earth's Future solar geoengineering climate modeling geopolitical game theory climate change stratospheric aerosol injection |
| title | A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations |
| title_full | A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations |
| title_fullStr | A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations |
| title_short | A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations |
| title_sort | model study exploring the decision loop between unilateral stratospheric aerosol injection scenario design and earth system simulations |
| topic | solar geoengineering climate modeling geopolitical game theory climate change stratospheric aerosol injection |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005455 |
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