Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periods

The relationship between the exchange rate, stock price, housing, and coin as the items considered by the investor for portfolio management has always been a complex discussion, and the relationship between them and determining the cause of the transfer of volatilities (receiver and transmitter of v...

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Main Authors: Soheil Roudari, Seyed Hadi Arabi, Abolfazl Shahabadi, Omidali Adeli
Format: Article
Language:fas
Published: Alzahra University 2025-03-01
Series:راهبرد مدیریت مالی
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Online Access:https://jfm.alzahra.ac.ir/article_8370_d38e0ad57d79f4ba149153d4a8fe33f0.pdf
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author Soheil Roudari
Seyed Hadi Arabi
Abolfazl Shahabadi
Omidali Adeli
author_facet Soheil Roudari
Seyed Hadi Arabi
Abolfazl Shahabadi
Omidali Adeli
author_sort Soheil Roudari
collection DOAJ
description The relationship between the exchange rate, stock price, housing, and coin as the items considered by the investor for portfolio management has always been a complex discussion, and the relationship between them and determining the cause of the transfer of volatilities (receiver and transmitter of volatilities) may be different in each country and different periods. According to this, in the current study, the risk spillover between currency, housing, coin, and stock markets in the period of 1385:01- 1400:12 monthly using the vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters of Diebold-Yilmaz (DY-TVP-VAR) have been investigated. The results show that currency and gold coins are the main drivers of transferring and receiving volatilities in the investigated network. The housing market has only received the risk and volatilities of other assets, and the most volatilities have been transferred from currency and stocks to housing. Also, the stock market has received the most volatilities from currency and then coins. Based on the results, housing can provide risk hedging for the investment portfolio, and in other words, it is a safe haven, but coins relationship with other assets has been different over time; its selection should be based on other assets in the portfolio as well as political and economic conditions, and it is not a safe haven under all conditions. Therefore, during the sanctions period and in conditions where the return on assets has a significant difference from the mean, using the DY-TVP-VAR model can bring better results for investors to manage their investment portfolios.
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spelling doaj-art-1006cf6d8dbd484985fd1e7fb15251132025-08-20T01:57:59ZfasAlzahra Universityراهبرد مدیریت مالی2345-32142538-19622025-03-01131759810.22051/jfm.2025.41262.27188370Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periodsSoheil Roudari0Seyed Hadi Arabi1Abolfazl Shahabadi2Omidali Adeli3PhD, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, IranAssociate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, IranProfessor, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran,Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, IranThe relationship between the exchange rate, stock price, housing, and coin as the items considered by the investor for portfolio management has always been a complex discussion, and the relationship between them and determining the cause of the transfer of volatilities (receiver and transmitter of volatilities) may be different in each country and different periods. According to this, in the current study, the risk spillover between currency, housing, coin, and stock markets in the period of 1385:01- 1400:12 monthly using the vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters of Diebold-Yilmaz (DY-TVP-VAR) have been investigated. The results show that currency and gold coins are the main drivers of transferring and receiving volatilities in the investigated network. The housing market has only received the risk and volatilities of other assets, and the most volatilities have been transferred from currency and stocks to housing. Also, the stock market has received the most volatilities from currency and then coins. Based on the results, housing can provide risk hedging for the investment portfolio, and in other words, it is a safe haven, but coins relationship with other assets has been different over time; its selection should be based on other assets in the portfolio as well as political and economic conditions, and it is not a safe haven under all conditions. Therefore, during the sanctions period and in conditions where the return on assets has a significant difference from the mean, using the DY-TVP-VAR model can bring better results for investors to manage their investment portfolios.https://jfm.alzahra.ac.ir/article_8370_d38e0ad57d79f4ba149153d4a8fe33f0.pdfhousingcurrencygold coinstock marketdy-tvp-var model
spellingShingle Soheil Roudari
Seyed Hadi Arabi
Abolfazl Shahabadi
Omidali Adeli
Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periods
راهبرد مدیریت مالی
housing
currency
gold coin
stock market
dy-tvp-var model
title Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periods
title_full Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periods
title_fullStr Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periods
title_full_unstemmed Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periods
title_short Dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing, and gold coin in Iran: New evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non-sanctions periods
title_sort dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates stocks housing and gold coin in iran new evidence from the comparison between sanctions and non sanctions periods
topic housing
currency
gold coin
stock market
dy-tvp-var model
url https://jfm.alzahra.ac.ir/article_8370_d38e0ad57d79f4ba149153d4a8fe33f0.pdf
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