Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires
Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire‐atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C‐Haines) and near‐surface fire weather are assessed for sou...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083699 |
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| _version_ | 1850213774478278656 |
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| author | Giovanni Di Virgilio Jason P. Evans Stephanie A. P. Blake Matthew Armstrong Andrew J. Dowdy Jason Sharples Rick McRae |
| author_facet | Giovanni Di Virgilio Jason P. Evans Stephanie A. P. Blake Matthew Armstrong Andrew J. Dowdy Jason Sharples Rick McRae |
| author_sort | Giovanni Di Virgilio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire‐atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C‐Haines) and near‐surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show that observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C‐Haines conditions, but over a wide range of surface fire weather conditions. Statistically significant increases in the number of days where both C‐Haines and near‐surface fire weather values are conducive to pyroCb development are projected across southeastern Australia, predominantly for November (spring), and less strongly for December (summer) in 2060‐2079 versus 1990‐2009, with future C‐Haines increases linked to increased 850‐hPa dewpoint depression. The increased future occurrence of conditions conducive to pyroCb development and their extension into spring have implications for mitigating these dangerous wildfires and urbanizing fire‐prone landscapes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0ff727229c5a4ea5a9ae536330efe4bf |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-0ff727229c5a4ea5a9ae536330efe4bf2025-08-20T02:09:04ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072019-07-0146148517852610.1029/2019GL083699Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme WildfiresGiovanni Di Virgilio0Jason P. Evans1Stephanie A. P. Blake2Matthew Armstrong3Andrew J. Dowdy4Jason Sharples5Rick McRae6Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales AustraliaCentre for Water, Climate and Land University of Newcastle Newcastle New South Wales AustraliaClimate Research Section Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSchool of Science University of New South Wales Canberra ACT AustraliaAustralian Capital Territory Emergency Services Agency Canberra ACT AustraliaAbstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire‐atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C‐Haines) and near‐surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show that observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C‐Haines conditions, but over a wide range of surface fire weather conditions. Statistically significant increases in the number of days where both C‐Haines and near‐surface fire weather values are conducive to pyroCb development are projected across southeastern Australia, predominantly for November (spring), and less strongly for December (summer) in 2060‐2079 versus 1990‐2009, with future C‐Haines increases linked to increased 850‐hPa dewpoint depression. The increased future occurrence of conditions conducive to pyroCb development and their extension into spring have implications for mitigating these dangerous wildfires and urbanizing fire‐prone landscapes.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083699atmospheric instabilitydewpoint depressionfire weathernatural hazardspyrocumulonimbusregional climate modeling |
| spellingShingle | Giovanni Di Virgilio Jason P. Evans Stephanie A. P. Blake Matthew Armstrong Andrew J. Dowdy Jason Sharples Rick McRae Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires Geophysical Research Letters atmospheric instability dewpoint depression fire weather natural hazards pyrocumulonimbus regional climate modeling |
| title | Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires |
| title_full | Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires |
| title_short | Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires |
| title_sort | climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires |
| topic | atmospheric instability dewpoint depression fire weather natural hazards pyrocumulonimbus regional climate modeling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083699 |
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