Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in China

The purpose of this study is to minimize the negative influences of the severe traffic accidents in China by profoundly analyzing the complex coupling relations among accident factors contributing to the single-vehicle and multivehicle traffic accidents with the Bayesian network (BN) crash severity...

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Main Authors: Hong Chen, Yang Zhao, Xiaotong Ma
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2020-01-01
Series:Journal of Advanced Transportation
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8878265
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author Hong Chen
Yang Zhao
Xiaotong Ma
author_facet Hong Chen
Yang Zhao
Xiaotong Ma
author_sort Hong Chen
collection DOAJ
description The purpose of this study is to minimize the negative influences of the severe traffic accidents in China by profoundly analyzing the complex coupling relations among accident factors contributing to the single-vehicle and multivehicle traffic accidents with the Bayesian network (BN) crash severity model. The BN model was established by taking the critical factors identified with the improved grey correlation analysis method as node variables. The severe traffic accident data collected from accident reports published in China were used to validate this model. The model’s efficiency was validated objectively by comparing the conditional probability obtained by this model with the actual value. The result shows that the BN model can reflect the real relations among factors and can be seen as the target network for the severe traffic accidents in China. Besides, based on BN’s junction tree engine, five-factor combination sequences for the number of deaths and three-factor combination sequences for the number of injuries were ranked according to the severity degree to reveal the critical reasons and reduce the massive traffic accidents damage.
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institution OA Journals
issn 0197-6729
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language English
publishDate 2020-01-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Journal of Advanced Transportation
spelling doaj-art-0fe1dfa98c754e40bb5a4335efa5dfdc2025-08-20T02:02:32ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952020-01-01202010.1155/2020/88782658878265Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in ChinaHong Chen0Yang Zhao1Xiaotong Ma2College of Transportation Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, ChinaCollege of Transportation Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, ChinaCollege of Transportation Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, ChinaThe purpose of this study is to minimize the negative influences of the severe traffic accidents in China by profoundly analyzing the complex coupling relations among accident factors contributing to the single-vehicle and multivehicle traffic accidents with the Bayesian network (BN) crash severity model. The BN model was established by taking the critical factors identified with the improved grey correlation analysis method as node variables. The severe traffic accident data collected from accident reports published in China were used to validate this model. The model’s efficiency was validated objectively by comparing the conditional probability obtained by this model with the actual value. The result shows that the BN model can reflect the real relations among factors and can be seen as the target network for the severe traffic accidents in China. Besides, based on BN’s junction tree engine, five-factor combination sequences for the number of deaths and three-factor combination sequences for the number of injuries were ranked according to the severity degree to reveal the critical reasons and reduce the massive traffic accidents damage.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8878265
spellingShingle Hong Chen
Yang Zhao
Xiaotong Ma
Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in China
Journal of Advanced Transportation
title Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in China
title_full Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in China
title_fullStr Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in China
title_full_unstemmed Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in China
title_short Critical Factors Analysis of Severe Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network in China
title_sort critical factors analysis of severe traffic accidents based on bayesian network in china
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8878265
work_keys_str_mv AT hongchen criticalfactorsanalysisofseveretrafficaccidentsbasedonbayesiannetworkinchina
AT yangzhao criticalfactorsanalysisofseveretrafficaccidentsbasedonbayesiannetworkinchina
AT xiaotongma criticalfactorsanalysisofseveretrafficaccidentsbasedonbayesiannetworkinchina