Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From Theory
Abstract Monsoon onset over the South China Sea occurs in April–May, marking the start of the wet season over East Asia. Skillful prediction of onset timing remains an open challenge. Recently, theoretical studies using idealized models have revealed feedbacks at work during the seasonal transitions...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091444 |
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| author | Ruth Geen |
| author_facet | Ruth Geen |
| author_sort | Ruth Geen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Monsoon onset over the South China Sea occurs in April–May, marking the start of the wet season over East Asia. Skillful prediction of onset timing remains an open challenge. Recently, theoretical studies using idealized models have revealed feedbacks at work during the seasonal transitions of the Hadley cells and have shown that these are relevant to monsoon onset over Asia. Here, I hypothesize that monsoon onset occurs earlier in years when the atmosphere over the South China Sea is already in a state where these feedbacks are more easily triggered. I find that local anomalies in lower‐level moist static energy in the preceding January–March are well correlated with South China Sea Monsoon onset timing. This relationship remains relatively consistent on decadal timescales, while correlations with other teleconnections vary, and is used to develop a simple forecast model for onset timing that shows skill competitive with that of more complex models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0fdb3908c5224ed58a75c02b690f358e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-0fdb3908c5224ed58a75c02b690f358e2025-08-20T03:48:43ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072021-03-01486n/an/a10.1029/2020GL091444Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From TheoryRuth Geen0College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UKAbstract Monsoon onset over the South China Sea occurs in April–May, marking the start of the wet season over East Asia. Skillful prediction of onset timing remains an open challenge. Recently, theoretical studies using idealized models have revealed feedbacks at work during the seasonal transitions of the Hadley cells and have shown that these are relevant to monsoon onset over Asia. Here, I hypothesize that monsoon onset occurs earlier in years when the atmosphere over the South China Sea is already in a state where these feedbacks are more easily triggered. I find that local anomalies in lower‐level moist static energy in the preceding January–March are well correlated with South China Sea Monsoon onset timing. This relationship remains relatively consistent on decadal timescales, while correlations with other teleconnections vary, and is used to develop a simple forecast model for onset timing that shows skill competitive with that of more complex models.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091444 |
| spellingShingle | Ruth Geen Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From Theory Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From Theory |
| title_full | Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From Theory |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From Theory |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From Theory |
| title_short | Forecasting South China Sea Monsoon Onset Using Insight From Theory |
| title_sort | forecasting south china sea monsoon onset using insight from theory |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091444 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ruthgeen forecastingsouthchinaseamonsoononsetusinginsightfromtheory |