Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6
Study region: Northwest China Study focus: In arid and semi-arid regions, the future evolution and drivers of meteorological drought have received extensive attention. This study focuses on projecting the future annual and seasonal spatiotemporal changes of meteorological drought in Northwest China...
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| Format: | Article |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825003386 |
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| author | Jianan Shan Rui Zhu Zhenliang Yin Xiaoya Deng Tingting Wang Huaqing Yang Wei Zhang |
| author_facet | Jianan Shan Rui Zhu Zhenliang Yin Xiaoya Deng Tingting Wang Huaqing Yang Wei Zhang |
| author_sort | Jianan Shan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Northwest China Study focus: In arid and semi-arid regions, the future evolution and drivers of meteorological drought have received extensive attention. This study focuses on projecting the future annual and seasonal spatiotemporal changes of meteorological drought in Northwest China under the SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios by calculating the drought indices SPEI12, SPEI03 and applying the run theory based on the output data of 21 GCMs associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and the data from 152 meteorological stations. We further focused on Spearman correlation coefficient and convergent cross mapping (CCM) to identify the relationship between meteorological elements and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), and used multiple linear regression to quantitatively analyze the contribution of drivers to SPEI changes. New hydrological insights for the region: The temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation in Northwest China exhibit a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed show a decreasing trend. Future meteorological drought conditions are projected to intensify compared to the historical period, with seasonal variations showing alleviation in autumn but intensification in winter. Spatially, more severe meteorological drought conditions are observed in southern Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor. As the emission scenarios become more severe, drought indicators including frequency, duration, peak intensity, and severity show increasing trends. The drought areas are primarily attributed to the increase of moderate and severe drought areas. Individual meteorological elements exhibit a strong correlation with SPEI, with temperature and precipitation being the dominant factors influencing SPEI changes. However, the contribution of solar radiation during spring and winter seasons should not be overlooked. This study establishes a scientific foundation for drought risk assessment and provides a reference for the formulation of water resource management strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0f9e35474f5645f39fec996e62c1f4ae |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-0f9e35474f5645f39fec996e62c1f4ae2025-08-20T02:48:34ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-016010251310.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102513Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6Jianan Shan0Rui Zhu1Zhenliang Yin2Xiaoya Deng3Tingting Wang4Huaqing Yang5Wei Zhang6National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping, Gansu Province, Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaNational-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping, Gansu Province, Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China; Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, National Cryosphere Desert Data Center, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; Corresponding authors.School of Economics & Management, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaNational-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping, Gansu Province, Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaNational-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping, Gansu Province, Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaStudy region: Northwest China Study focus: In arid and semi-arid regions, the future evolution and drivers of meteorological drought have received extensive attention. This study focuses on projecting the future annual and seasonal spatiotemporal changes of meteorological drought in Northwest China under the SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios by calculating the drought indices SPEI12, SPEI03 and applying the run theory based on the output data of 21 GCMs associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and the data from 152 meteorological stations. We further focused on Spearman correlation coefficient and convergent cross mapping (CCM) to identify the relationship between meteorological elements and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), and used multiple linear regression to quantitatively analyze the contribution of drivers to SPEI changes. New hydrological insights for the region: The temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation in Northwest China exhibit a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed show a decreasing trend. Future meteorological drought conditions are projected to intensify compared to the historical period, with seasonal variations showing alleviation in autumn but intensification in winter. Spatially, more severe meteorological drought conditions are observed in southern Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor. As the emission scenarios become more severe, drought indicators including frequency, duration, peak intensity, and severity show increasing trends. The drought areas are primarily attributed to the increase of moderate and severe drought areas. Individual meteorological elements exhibit a strong correlation with SPEI, with temperature and precipitation being the dominant factors influencing SPEI changes. However, the contribution of solar radiation during spring and winter seasons should not be overlooked. This study establishes a scientific foundation for drought risk assessment and provides a reference for the formulation of water resource management strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825003386Spatiotemporal pattern of droughtSPEIDrought projectionNorthwest ChinaDriving factors |
| spellingShingle | Jianan Shan Rui Zhu Zhenliang Yin Xiaoya Deng Tingting Wang Huaqing Yang Wei Zhang Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Spatiotemporal pattern of drought SPEI Drought projection Northwest China Driving factors |
| title | Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 |
| title_full | Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 |
| title_fullStr | Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 |
| title_short | Analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 |
| title_sort | analysis on spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological driving factors of future meteorological drought in northwest china based on cmip6 |
| topic | Spatiotemporal pattern of drought SPEI Drought projection Northwest China Driving factors |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825003386 |
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