An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes

In manufacturing enterprises, the variety of heat treatment processes, insufficient data in the early stages of production, and the continuous increase of samples over time make it difficult to predict and optimize carbon emissions dynamically. Therefore, this paper proposes a low-carbon optimizatio...

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Main Authors: Qian Yi, Xin Wu, Junkang Zhuo, Congbo Li, Chuanjiang Li, Huajun Cao
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-08-01
Series:Case Studies in Thermal Engineering
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214157X25005805
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author Qian Yi
Xin Wu
Junkang Zhuo
Congbo Li
Chuanjiang Li
Huajun Cao
author_facet Qian Yi
Xin Wu
Junkang Zhuo
Congbo Li
Chuanjiang Li
Huajun Cao
author_sort Qian Yi
collection DOAJ
description In manufacturing enterprises, the variety of heat treatment processes, insufficient data in the early stages of production, and the continuous increase of samples over time make it difficult to predict and optimize carbon emissions dynamically. Therefore, this paper proposes a low-carbon optimization method for heat treatment processes based on incremental data-driven approaches. Using life cycle assessment (LCA) theory, carbon emission sources are accurately analyzed and quantified, and a full life cycle carbon emission model is established. The key process parameters affecting part performance and carbon emission were screened through mechanism analysis, and the incremental data were fused by the Elasticity Weight Consolidation (EWC) algorithm to establish an EWC-BPNN heat treatment carbon emission prediction model. Then the model is solved by the Multi-objective Seagull Optimization Algorithm (MOSOA), and the result achieves a good balance between the carbon emission and hardness of the heat treatment process. Finally, using real data collected in enterprises for four consecutive years, it is verified that the predictive model can be effectively applied to the working conditions of multi-variety, small batch, and incremental heat treatment data.
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publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series Case Studies in Thermal Engineering
spelling doaj-art-0f34de7d632a419aa8b1dd5c3a3ad5dc2025-08-20T01:55:21ZengElsevierCase Studies in Thermal Engineering2214-157X2025-08-017210632010.1016/j.csite.2025.106320An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processesQian Yi0Xin Wu1Junkang Zhuo2Congbo Li3Chuanjiang Li4Huajun Cao5College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, PR China; Corresponding author. College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, PR China.College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, PR ChinaCollege of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, PR ChinaCollege of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, PR ChinaState Key Laboratory of Public Big Data, Guizhou University, Guizhou, Guiyang, 550025, PR ChinaCollege of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, PR ChinaIn manufacturing enterprises, the variety of heat treatment processes, insufficient data in the early stages of production, and the continuous increase of samples over time make it difficult to predict and optimize carbon emissions dynamically. Therefore, this paper proposes a low-carbon optimization method for heat treatment processes based on incremental data-driven approaches. Using life cycle assessment (LCA) theory, carbon emission sources are accurately analyzed and quantified, and a full life cycle carbon emission model is established. The key process parameters affecting part performance and carbon emission were screened through mechanism analysis, and the incremental data were fused by the Elasticity Weight Consolidation (EWC) algorithm to establish an EWC-BPNN heat treatment carbon emission prediction model. Then the model is solved by the Multi-objective Seagull Optimization Algorithm (MOSOA), and the result achieves a good balance between the carbon emission and hardness of the heat treatment process. Finally, using real data collected in enterprises for four consecutive years, it is verified that the predictive model can be effectively applied to the working conditions of multi-variety, small batch, and incremental heat treatment data.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214157X25005805Incremental dataHeat treatmentCarbon consumption predictionProcess optimization
spellingShingle Qian Yi
Xin Wu
Junkang Zhuo
Congbo Li
Chuanjiang Li
Huajun Cao
An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes
Case Studies in Thermal Engineering
Incremental data
Heat treatment
Carbon consumption prediction
Process optimization
title An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes
title_full An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes
title_fullStr An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes
title_full_unstemmed An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes
title_short An incremental data-driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes
title_sort incremental data driven approach for carbon emission prediction and optimization of heat treatment processes
topic Incremental data
Heat treatment
Carbon consumption prediction
Process optimization
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214157X25005805
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