TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAUR
Investment is the process of investing money or capital for profit or material results. The investor carefully calculates the investment object to minimize losses and maximize profits. One of the essential investment objects is the futures price of natural gas considered a commodity that plays a vit...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universitas Pattimura
2022-12-01
|
| Series: | Barekeng |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/5888 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849407023733538816 |
|---|---|
| author | Dodi Devianto Aulia Zuardin Maiyastri Maiyastri |
| author_facet | Dodi Devianto Aulia Zuardin Maiyastri Maiyastri |
| author_sort | Dodi Devianto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Investment is the process of investing money or capital for profit or material results. The investor carefully calculates the investment object to minimize losses and maximize profits. One of the essential investment objects is the futures price of natural gas considered a commodity that plays a vital role in the Indonesian economy. The movement of natural gas futures prices can be modeled using a time series model. The data in the time series model is believed to have particular pattern to model the data in the future. The natural gas futures price is modeled into a time series method by using fuzzy time series (FTS) approach of the FTS Chen, Lee and Tsaur. Model accuracy is calculated using the criteria of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The three FTS methods have good performance of accuracy for this time series data, where FTS Tsaur as fuzzy times series approach with average based method shows the best results with the smallest error rate to the data of natural gas future price. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0ecf37f009f6407dbdd691ff034ec73c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1978-7227 2615-3017 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Pattimura |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Barekeng |
| spelling | doaj-art-0ecf37f009f6407dbdd691ff034ec73c2025-08-20T03:36:12ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172022-12-011641185119610.30598/barekengvol16iss4pp1185-11965888TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAURDodi Devianto0Aulia Zuardin1Maiyastri Maiyastri2Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Andalas UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Andalas UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Andalas UniversityInvestment is the process of investing money or capital for profit or material results. The investor carefully calculates the investment object to minimize losses and maximize profits. One of the essential investment objects is the futures price of natural gas considered a commodity that plays a vital role in the Indonesian economy. The movement of natural gas futures prices can be modeled using a time series model. The data in the time series model is believed to have particular pattern to model the data in the future. The natural gas futures price is modeled into a time series method by using fuzzy time series (FTS) approach of the FTS Chen, Lee and Tsaur. Model accuracy is calculated using the criteria of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The three FTS methods have good performance of accuracy for this time series data, where FTS Tsaur as fuzzy times series approach with average based method shows the best results with the smallest error rate to the data of natural gas future price.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/5888fts chenfts leefts tsaurmodel accuracynatural future gas price |
| spellingShingle | Dodi Devianto Aulia Zuardin Maiyastri Maiyastri TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAUR Barekeng fts chen fts lee fts tsaur model accuracy natural future gas price |
| title | TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAUR |
| title_full | TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAUR |
| title_fullStr | TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAUR |
| title_full_unstemmed | TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAUR |
| title_short | TIME SERIES MODELING OF NATURAL GAS FUTURE PRICE WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN, LEE AND TSAUR |
| title_sort | time series modeling of natural gas future price with fuzzy time series chen lee and tsaur |
| topic | fts chen fts lee fts tsaur model accuracy natural future gas price |
| url | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/5888 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dodidevianto timeseriesmodelingofnaturalgasfuturepricewithfuzzytimeserieschenleeandtsaur AT auliazuardin timeseriesmodelingofnaturalgasfuturepricewithfuzzytimeserieschenleeandtsaur AT maiyastrimaiyastri timeseriesmodelingofnaturalgasfuturepricewithfuzzytimeserieschenleeandtsaur |