Droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation

Abstract Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading environmental cause of mortality. Droughts can worsen air quality in regions that rely on hydropower by shifting energy production to combustion power plants. This study quantifies drought-induced excess PM2.5 in Latin America and the Caribbean,...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mathilda Eriksson, Alejandro del Valle, Alejandro de la Fuente
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60090-z
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850269176691687424
author Mathilda Eriksson
Alejandro del Valle
Alejandro de la Fuente
author_facet Mathilda Eriksson
Alejandro del Valle
Alejandro de la Fuente
author_sort Mathilda Eriksson
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading environmental cause of mortality. Droughts can worsen air quality in regions that rely on hydropower by shifting energy production to combustion power plants. This study quantifies drought-induced excess PM2.5 in Latin America and the Caribbean, where over 443 million people live within 50 km of a combustion power plant. Leveraging a monthly plant-level panel spanning 20 years, we link hydrological droughts, measured as negative runoff anomalies in hydropower watersheds, to changes in PM2.5 concentrations near combustion power plants. Our analysis reveals that these droughts lead to an average increase of 0.83 μg m−3 in PM2.5 levels. Counterfactual simulations for the region reveal that this excess PM2.5 results in up to 10,000 premature deaths annually. Combining our estimates with climate, demographic, and combustion power plant phase-out projections, we demonstrate that this health burden will persist over the next four decades without targeted interventions.
format Article
id doaj-art-0ecc5ec0bc04475ebe05fed47aa72b80
institution OA Journals
issn 2041-1723
language English
publishDate 2025-05-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Nature Communications
spelling doaj-art-0ecc5ec0bc04475ebe05fed47aa72b802025-08-20T01:53:14ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-05-0116111210.1038/s41467-025-60090-zDroughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generationMathilda Eriksson0Alejandro del Valle1Alejandro de la Fuente2Maurice R. Greenberg School of Risk Sciences, Georgia State UniversityMaurice R. Greenberg School of Risk Sciences, Georgia State UniversityPoverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank Group, Delta CenterAbstract Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading environmental cause of mortality. Droughts can worsen air quality in regions that rely on hydropower by shifting energy production to combustion power plants. This study quantifies drought-induced excess PM2.5 in Latin America and the Caribbean, where over 443 million people live within 50 km of a combustion power plant. Leveraging a monthly plant-level panel spanning 20 years, we link hydrological droughts, measured as negative runoff anomalies in hydropower watersheds, to changes in PM2.5 concentrations near combustion power plants. Our analysis reveals that these droughts lead to an average increase of 0.83 μg m−3 in PM2.5 levels. Counterfactual simulations for the region reveal that this excess PM2.5 results in up to 10,000 premature deaths annually. Combining our estimates with climate, demographic, and combustion power plant phase-out projections, we demonstrate that this health burden will persist over the next four decades without targeted interventions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60090-z
spellingShingle Mathilda Eriksson
Alejandro del Valle
Alejandro de la Fuente
Droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation
Nature Communications
title Droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation
title_full Droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation
title_fullStr Droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation
title_full_unstemmed Droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation
title_short Droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation
title_sort droughts worsen air quality and health by shifting power generation
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60090-z
work_keys_str_mv AT mathildaeriksson droughtsworsenairqualityandhealthbyshiftingpowergeneration
AT alejandrodelvalle droughtsworsenairqualityandhealthbyshiftingpowergeneration
AT alejandrodelafuente droughtsworsenairqualityandhealthbyshiftingpowergeneration