Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy
The growing need to address natural and human-induced disasters while protecting territory remains a key focus for the scientific community. Effective emergency management, especially during wildfires, requires coordinated responses to safeguard lives and assets. This study develops hazard maps to a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Land |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/277 |
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| author | Davide Berardi Marta Galuppi Angelo Libertà Mara Lombardi |
| author_facet | Davide Berardi Marta Galuppi Angelo Libertà Mara Lombardi |
| author_sort | Davide Berardi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The growing need to address natural and human-induced disasters while protecting territory remains a key focus for the scientific community. Effective emergency management, especially during wildfires, requires coordinated responses to safeguard lives and assets. This study develops hazard maps to aid emergency planning in Italy and estimate territorial resilience indicators. Focusing on wildfire ignition hazards in Ischia, the study uses a probabilistic model based on fifteen years of wildfire data (2009–2023). By analyzing ignition points and employing a Poisson distribution, it correlates ignition probabilities with vegetation types. The hazard maps reveal that wildfire risk is primarily influenced by the wildland–urban interface and vegetation characteristics, emphasizing the need to integrate territorial and urban factors into wildfire forecasting. The findings also suggest areas for refining the model to enhance risk mitigation strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0ec2b54ce7d2490dba659a3a60c5717e |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj-art-0ec2b54ce7d2490dba659a3a60c5717e2025-08-20T02:03:31ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-01-0114227710.3390/land14020277Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of ItalyDavide Berardi0Marta Galuppi1Angelo Libertà2Mara Lombardi3Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, ItalyDepartment of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, ItalyDepartment of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, ItalyDepartment of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, ItalyThe growing need to address natural and human-induced disasters while protecting territory remains a key focus for the scientific community. Effective emergency management, especially during wildfires, requires coordinated responses to safeguard lives and assets. This study develops hazard maps to aid emergency planning in Italy and estimate territorial resilience indicators. Focusing on wildfire ignition hazards in Ischia, the study uses a probabilistic model based on fifteen years of wildfire data (2009–2023). By analyzing ignition points and employing a Poisson distribution, it correlates ignition probabilities with vegetation types. The hazard maps reveal that wildfire risk is primarily influenced by the wildland–urban interface and vegetation characteristics, emphasizing the need to integrate territorial and urban factors into wildfire forecasting. The findings also suggest areas for refining the model to enhance risk mitigation strategies.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/277ignition pointswildfire forecastingwildland–urban interfacevulnerability assessmentspatial distributionfire resilience |
| spellingShingle | Davide Berardi Marta Galuppi Angelo Libertà Mara Lombardi Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy Land ignition points wildfire forecasting wildland–urban interface vulnerability assessment spatial distribution fire resilience |
| title | Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy |
| title_full | Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy |
| title_short | Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy |
| title_sort | forecasting of wildfire probability occurrence case study of a mediterranean island of italy |
| topic | ignition points wildfire forecasting wildland–urban interface vulnerability assessment spatial distribution fire resilience |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/277 |
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