Time-Series Modeling of Ozone Concentrations Constrained by Residual Variance in China from 2005 to 2020
Satellite retrievals can capture the spatiotemporal variation of O<sub>3</sub> over a large area near the surface. However, due to the unstable functional relationships between variables across spatiotemporal scales, the outlier predictions will reduce the accuracy of the prediction mode...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/9/1534 |
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| Summary: | Satellite retrievals can capture the spatiotemporal variation of O<sub>3</sub> over a large area near the surface. However, due to the unstable functional relationships between variables across spatiotemporal scales, the outlier predictions will reduce the accuracy of the prediction model. Therefore, a validated residual constrained random forest model (RF-RVC) is proposed to estimate the monthly and annual O<sub>3</sub> concentration datasets of 0.1° in China from 2005 to 2020 using O<sub>3</sub> precursor remote-sensing data and other auxiliary data. The temporal and spatial variations of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in China and the four urban agglomerations (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Sichuan–Chongqing (SC)) were calculated. The results show that the annual <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> and <i>RMSE</i> of the RF-RVC model are 0.72~0.89 and 8.4~13.06 μg/m<sup>3</sup>. Among them, the RF-RVC model with the temporal residuals constraint has the greatest performance improvement, with the annual <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> increasing from 0.59 to 0.8, and the <i>RMSE</i> decreasing from 17.24 μg/m<sup>3</sup> to 10.74 μg/m<sup>3</sup>, which is significantly better than that of the <i>RF</i> model. The North China Plain is the focus of ozone pollution. Summer is the season of a high incidence of ozone pollution in China, YRD, PYD, and SC, while pollution in the PRD is delayed to October due to the monsoon. In addition, the trend of the O<sub>3</sub> and its excess proportion in China and the four urban agglomerations is not satisfactory; targeted measures should be taken to reduce the risk of environmental ozone. The research findings confirm the effectiveness of the residual constraint approach in long-term time-series modeling. In the future, it can be further extended to the modeling of other pollutants, providing more accurate data support for health risk assessments. |
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| ISSN: | 2072-4292 |