Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specific

IntroductionUnderstanding how climate change affects the distribution of Amazonian bumblebee species is essential for their conservation and the pollination services they provide. This study focuses on two poorly known species, Bombus brevivillus and Bombus transversalis, evaluating how future clima...

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Main Authors: Patrícia Nunes-Silva, André Luis Acosta, Rafael Cabral Borges, Breno Magalhães Freitas, Ricardo Caliari Oliveira, Tereza Cristina Giannini, Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-02-01
Series:Frontiers in Bee Science
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frbee.2025.1510004/full
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author Patrícia Nunes-Silva
André Luis Acosta
Rafael Cabral Borges
Breno Magalhães Freitas
Ricardo Caliari Oliveira
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca
author_facet Patrícia Nunes-Silva
André Luis Acosta
Rafael Cabral Borges
Breno Magalhães Freitas
Ricardo Caliari Oliveira
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca
author_sort Patrícia Nunes-Silva
collection DOAJ
description IntroductionUnderstanding how climate change affects the distribution of Amazonian bumblebee species is essential for their conservation and the pollination services they provide. This study focuses on two poorly known species, Bombus brevivillus and Bombus transversalis, evaluating how future climate scenarios may alter their suitable habitats in the Brazilian Amazon. Identifying potential refugia and vulnerable areas is crucial for developing targeted conservation strategies.MethodsSpecies distribution models were applied using occurrence data from museum records and field collections. Climatic suitability was projected under the baseline period (1970–2000) and two future periods (2021–2040 and 2041–2060) using the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) from the IPCC AR6 report. An ensemble modeling approach combining five different algorithms was used to predict areas of stability, habitat loss, and potential range expansion.ResultsBy 2060, B. brevivillus is projected to lose 41.6% of its current suitable habitat, with significant reductions in northern and coastal regions. Conversely, B. transversalis is expected to retain 89.5% of its current range, showing a westward distribution shift. New climatically suitable areas may emerge for both species, particularly in the western Amazon, potentially serving as future refugia.DiscussionThe findings highlight species-specific responses to climate change, with B. brevivillus being more vulnerable than B. transversalis. These results emphasize the need for proactive conservation measures to protect critical habitats and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Future research should focus on assessing thermal tolerance and habitat connectivity to refine conservation strategies and ensure the persistence of these essential pollinators in changing environmental conditions.
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spelling doaj-art-0e77164af9344c07b89a5fd72ac8a4042025-08-20T02:43:16ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Bee Science2813-59112025-02-01310.3389/frbee.2025.15100041510004Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specificPatrícia Nunes-Silva0André Luis Acosta1Rafael Cabral Borges2Breno Magalhães Freitas3Ricardo Caliari Oliveira4Tereza Cristina Giannini5Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca6X-Reality and GeoInformatics Lab (Vizlab), Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS), São Leopoldo, RS, BrazilPlanetary Health Brazil - Institute of Advanced Studies (IEA-USP), Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, BrazilInstituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, BrazilBee Unit, Animal Science Department, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, BrazilDepartament de Biologia Animal, Biologia Vegetal i Ecologia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Barcelona, SpainInstituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, BrazilDepartamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilIntroductionUnderstanding how climate change affects the distribution of Amazonian bumblebee species is essential for their conservation and the pollination services they provide. This study focuses on two poorly known species, Bombus brevivillus and Bombus transversalis, evaluating how future climate scenarios may alter their suitable habitats in the Brazilian Amazon. Identifying potential refugia and vulnerable areas is crucial for developing targeted conservation strategies.MethodsSpecies distribution models were applied using occurrence data from museum records and field collections. Climatic suitability was projected under the baseline period (1970–2000) and two future periods (2021–2040 and 2041–2060) using the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) from the IPCC AR6 report. An ensemble modeling approach combining five different algorithms was used to predict areas of stability, habitat loss, and potential range expansion.ResultsBy 2060, B. brevivillus is projected to lose 41.6% of its current suitable habitat, with significant reductions in northern and coastal regions. Conversely, B. transversalis is expected to retain 89.5% of its current range, showing a westward distribution shift. New climatically suitable areas may emerge for both species, particularly in the western Amazon, potentially serving as future refugia.DiscussionThe findings highlight species-specific responses to climate change, with B. brevivillus being more vulnerable than B. transversalis. These results emphasize the need for proactive conservation measures to protect critical habitats and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Future research should focus on assessing thermal tolerance and habitat connectivity to refine conservation strategies and ensure the persistence of these essential pollinators in changing environmental conditions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frbee.2025.1510004/fullBombusspecies distribution modelingconservationdecision-makingpriority zones
spellingShingle Patrícia Nunes-Silva
André Luis Acosta
Rafael Cabral Borges
Breno Magalhães Freitas
Ricardo Caliari Oliveira
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca
Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specific
Frontiers in Bee Science
Bombus
species distribution modeling
conservation
decision-making
priority zones
title Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specific
title_full Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specific
title_fullStr Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specific
title_full_unstemmed Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specific
title_short Climate change will alter Amazonian bumblebees’ distribution, but effects are species-specific
title_sort climate change will alter amazonian bumblebees distribution but effects are species specific
topic Bombus
species distribution modeling
conservation
decision-making
priority zones
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frbee.2025.1510004/full
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