Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal Waves
Abstract Extreme cold events (ECEs) have intensified in East Asia over the past decades, disrupting socio‐economic activities and public health. Understanding the mechanism and accurate prediction are crucial yet challenging. This study explores the causes and prediction biases for a severe ECE in B...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113745 |
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| author | Tao Zhu Yiruo Zhou Jing Yang Frederic Vitart Qing Bao |
| author_facet | Tao Zhu Yiruo Zhou Jing Yang Frederic Vitart Qing Bao |
| author_sort | Tao Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Extreme cold events (ECEs) have intensified in East Asia over the past decades, disrupting socio‐economic activities and public health. Understanding the mechanism and accurate prediction are crucial yet challenging. This study explores the causes and prediction biases for a severe ECE in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei (BTH) during the 2022 Winter Olympics. Two upper‐tropospheric quasi‐biweekly oscillations (QBWO), propagating eastward along the mid‐ and high‐latitudes, respectively, have been confirmed to trigger a low‐tropospheric cyclonic anomaly (LCA) via potential vorticity advection and meridional secondary circulation. This LCA generated the BTH ECE by reducing incoming solar radiation due to increased snowfall and cloud cover, and by advecting cold air into BTH. Both the subseasonal dynamical prediction and long‐term historical observational diagnosis further indicate a strong connection between mid‐high‐latitude QBWO and the regional ECEs. This research deepens our understanding of the ECE mechanisms and underscores the need for improving the prediction of extratropical subseasonal signals for better forecasting of extreme events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0e4b8a9de22a45f2b6b4e0096eb1d386 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-0e4b8a9de22a45f2b6b4e0096eb1d3862025-08-20T02:30:59ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-04-01527n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113745Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal WavesTao Zhu0Yiruo Zhou1Jing Yang2Frederic Vitart3Qing Bao4State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance (ESPHR) Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance (ESPHR) Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance (ESPHR) Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaEuropean Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reading UKState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaAbstract Extreme cold events (ECEs) have intensified in East Asia over the past decades, disrupting socio‐economic activities and public health. Understanding the mechanism and accurate prediction are crucial yet challenging. This study explores the causes and prediction biases for a severe ECE in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei (BTH) during the 2022 Winter Olympics. Two upper‐tropospheric quasi‐biweekly oscillations (QBWO), propagating eastward along the mid‐ and high‐latitudes, respectively, have been confirmed to trigger a low‐tropospheric cyclonic anomaly (LCA) via potential vorticity advection and meridional secondary circulation. This LCA generated the BTH ECE by reducing incoming solar radiation due to increased snowfall and cloud cover, and by advecting cold air into BTH. Both the subseasonal dynamical prediction and long‐term historical observational diagnosis further indicate a strong connection between mid‐high‐latitude QBWO and the regional ECEs. This research deepens our understanding of the ECE mechanisms and underscores the need for improving the prediction of extratropical subseasonal signals for better forecasting of extreme events.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113745intraseasonal oscillationmid‐high‐latitudesextreme cold eventsubseasonal predictionNorth China |
| spellingShingle | Tao Zhu Yiruo Zhou Jing Yang Frederic Vitart Qing Bao Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal Waves Geophysical Research Letters intraseasonal oscillation mid‐high‐latitudes extreme cold event subseasonal prediction North China |
| title | Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal Waves |
| title_full | Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal Waves |
| title_fullStr | Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal Waves |
| title_full_unstemmed | Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal Waves |
| title_short | Severe Extreme Cold Event in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region Tied to Mid‐High‐Latitude Intraseasonal Waves |
| title_sort | severe extreme cold event in beijing tianjin hebei region tied to mid high latitude intraseasonal waves |
| topic | intraseasonal oscillation mid‐high‐latitudes extreme cold event subseasonal prediction North China |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113745 |
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