Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China
Accurately assessing the impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions on CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations is essential for understanding regional climate change, particularly in high-emission countries like China. This study employed the GEOS-Chem chemical t...
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MDPI AG
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| author | Wenjing Lu Xiaoying Li Shenshen Li Tianhai Cheng Yuhang Guo Weifang Fang |
| author_facet | Wenjing Lu Xiaoying Li Shenshen Li Tianhai Cheng Yuhang Guo Weifang Fang |
| author_sort | Wenjing Lu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accurately assessing the impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions on CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations is essential for understanding regional climate change, particularly in high-emission countries like China. This study employed the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate and compare the spatiotemporal distributions of XCO<sub>2</sub> of three anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emission inventories in mainland China for the 2018–2020 period and analyzed the effects of emission variations on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. In eastern China, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions, column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO<sub>2</sub> (XCO<sub>2</sub>) can exceed 420 ppm during peak periods, with emissions from these areas contributing significantly to the national total. The simulation results were validated by comparing them with OCO-2 satellite observations and ground-based monitoring data, showing that more than 70% of the monitoring stations exhibited a correlation coefficient greater than 0.7 between simulated and observed data. The average bias relative to satellite observations was less than 1 ppm, with the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) showing the highest degree of agreement with both satellite and ground-based observations. During the study period, anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions resulted in an increase in XCO<sub>2</sub> exceeding 10 ppm, particularly in the North China Plain and the YRD. In scenarios where emissions from either the BTH or YRD regions were reduced by 50%, a corresponding decrease of 1 ppm in XCO<sub>2</sub> was observed in the study area and its surrounding regions. These findings underscore the critical role of emission control policies in mitigating the rise in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in densely populated and industrialized areas. This research elucidates the impacts of variations in anthropogenic emissions on the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and emphasizes the need for improved accuracy of CO<sub>2</sub> emission inventories. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0d5d08287d464e5e82712b8518686ebb |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-0d5d08287d464e5e82712b8518686ebb2025-08-20T02:59:15ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922025-02-0117581410.3390/rs17050814Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland ChinaWenjing Lu0Xiaoying Li1Shenshen Li2Tianhai Cheng3Yuhang Guo4Weifang Fang5Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, ChinaAtmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12203, USAAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, ChinaAccurately assessing the impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions on CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations is essential for understanding regional climate change, particularly in high-emission countries like China. This study employed the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate and compare the spatiotemporal distributions of XCO<sub>2</sub> of three anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emission inventories in mainland China for the 2018–2020 period and analyzed the effects of emission variations on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. In eastern China, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions, column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO<sub>2</sub> (XCO<sub>2</sub>) can exceed 420 ppm during peak periods, with emissions from these areas contributing significantly to the national total. The simulation results were validated by comparing them with OCO-2 satellite observations and ground-based monitoring data, showing that more than 70% of the monitoring stations exhibited a correlation coefficient greater than 0.7 between simulated and observed data. The average bias relative to satellite observations was less than 1 ppm, with the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) showing the highest degree of agreement with both satellite and ground-based observations. During the study period, anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions resulted in an increase in XCO<sub>2</sub> exceeding 10 ppm, particularly in the North China Plain and the YRD. In scenarios where emissions from either the BTH or YRD regions were reduced by 50%, a corresponding decrease of 1 ppm in XCO<sub>2</sub> was observed in the study area and its surrounding regions. These findings underscore the critical role of emission control policies in mitigating the rise in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in densely populated and industrialized areas. This research elucidates the impacts of variations in anthropogenic emissions on the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and emphasizes the need for improved accuracy of CO<sub>2</sub> emission inventories.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/5/814anthropogenic emissionXCO<sub>2</sub>GEOS-ChemOCO-2TCCON |
| spellingShingle | Wenjing Lu Xiaoying Li Shenshen Li Tianhai Cheng Yuhang Guo Weifang Fang Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China Remote Sensing anthropogenic emission XCO<sub>2</sub> GEOS-Chem OCO-2 TCCON |
| title | Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China |
| title_full | Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China |
| title_fullStr | Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China |
| title_short | Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China |
| title_sort | effects of emission variability on atmospheric co sub 2 sub concentrations in mainland china |
| topic | anthropogenic emission XCO<sub>2</sub> GEOS-Chem OCO-2 TCCON |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/5/814 |
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