Effects of Emission Variability on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Mainland China
Accurately assessing the impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions on CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations is essential for understanding regional climate change, particularly in high-emission countries like China. This study employed the GEOS-Chem chemical t...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/5/814 |
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| Summary: | Accurately assessing the impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions on CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations is essential for understanding regional climate change, particularly in high-emission countries like China. This study employed the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate and compare the spatiotemporal distributions of XCO<sub>2</sub> of three anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emission inventories in mainland China for the 2018–2020 period and analyzed the effects of emission variations on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. In eastern China, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions, column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO<sub>2</sub> (XCO<sub>2</sub>) can exceed 420 ppm during peak periods, with emissions from these areas contributing significantly to the national total. The simulation results were validated by comparing them with OCO-2 satellite observations and ground-based monitoring data, showing that more than 70% of the monitoring stations exhibited a correlation coefficient greater than 0.7 between simulated and observed data. The average bias relative to satellite observations was less than 1 ppm, with the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) showing the highest degree of agreement with both satellite and ground-based observations. During the study period, anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions resulted in an increase in XCO<sub>2</sub> exceeding 10 ppm, particularly in the North China Plain and the YRD. In scenarios where emissions from either the BTH or YRD regions were reduced by 50%, a corresponding decrease of 1 ppm in XCO<sub>2</sub> was observed in the study area and its surrounding regions. These findings underscore the critical role of emission control policies in mitigating the rise in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in densely populated and industrialized areas. This research elucidates the impacts of variations in anthropogenic emissions on the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and emphasizes the need for improved accuracy of CO<sub>2</sub> emission inventories. |
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| ISSN: | 2072-4292 |