Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt
Changes in species’ habitats provide important insights into the effects of climate change. <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i>, a critically endangered species endemic to karst ecosystems, has a highly restricted distribution and is a key biological resource. Despite its ecological impor...
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2024-12-01
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| author | Weihao Yao Zenghui Wang Yu Fan Danyang Liu Zeyang Ding Yumei Zhou Shuyue Hu Wei Zhang Jing Ou |
| author_facet | Weihao Yao Zenghui Wang Yu Fan Danyang Liu Zeyang Ding Yumei Zhou Shuyue Hu Wei Zhang Jing Ou |
| author_sort | Weihao Yao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Changes in species’ habitats provide important insights into the effects of climate change. <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i>, a critically endangered species endemic to karst ecosystems, has a highly restricted distribution and is a key biological resource. Despite its ecological importance, the factors influencing its habitat suitability and distribution remain poorly understood. This study employed ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> across China and analyzed shifts in centroid location to explore migration pathways under current and future climate scenarios. The model exhibited high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.988), indicating its robustness in assessing habitat suitability. Under current climatic conditions, <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> is predominantly found in the Guizhou–Guangxi border region, southeastern Yunnan, eastern Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, and parts of Chongqing, Hunan, and Hubei. Among these, the Guizhou-Guangxi border represents the primary suitable habitat. Temperature factors, particularly bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) and bio7 (annual temperature range), were the most significant determinants of habitat suitability, contributing 43.29% and 12.65%, respectively. Soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) accounted for 15.82%, while precipitation had a relatively minor impact. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats for <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> are projected to shrink and shift toward higher altitudes and latitudes, increasing the risk of extinction due to the “mountain trap” effect, where migration is constrained by limited habitat at higher elevations. Stable habitats, particularly in Libo (Guizhou) and Huanjiang (Guangxi), are identified as critical refugia. We recommend prioritizing shrinking and stable habitats in Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan for in situ conservation. Ex situ conservation efforts should focus on areas identified based on key environmental factors and predicted migration pathways to ensure the species’ long-term survival. This study provides both theoretical and practical guidance for the conservation of this species and its vulnerable habitat. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0d02bc0b42294b50acf995be444f357b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
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| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj-art-0d02bc0b42294b50acf995be444f357b2025-01-10T13:19:42ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472024-12-011418610.3390/plants14010086Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEntWeihao Yao0Zenghui Wang1Yu Fan2Danyang Liu3Zeyang Ding4Yumei Zhou5Shuyue Hu6Wei Zhang7Jing Ou8College of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Agricultural, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaChanges in species’ habitats provide important insights into the effects of climate change. <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i>, a critically endangered species endemic to karst ecosystems, has a highly restricted distribution and is a key biological resource. Despite its ecological importance, the factors influencing its habitat suitability and distribution remain poorly understood. This study employed ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> across China and analyzed shifts in centroid location to explore migration pathways under current and future climate scenarios. The model exhibited high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.988), indicating its robustness in assessing habitat suitability. Under current climatic conditions, <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> is predominantly found in the Guizhou–Guangxi border region, southeastern Yunnan, eastern Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, and parts of Chongqing, Hunan, and Hubei. Among these, the Guizhou-Guangxi border represents the primary suitable habitat. Temperature factors, particularly bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) and bio7 (annual temperature range), were the most significant determinants of habitat suitability, contributing 43.29% and 12.65%, respectively. Soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) accounted for 15.82%, while precipitation had a relatively minor impact. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats for <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> are projected to shrink and shift toward higher altitudes and latitudes, increasing the risk of extinction due to the “mountain trap” effect, where migration is constrained by limited habitat at higher elevations. Stable habitats, particularly in Libo (Guizhou) and Huanjiang (Guangxi), are identified as critical refugia. We recommend prioritizing shrinking and stable habitats in Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan for in situ conservation. Ex situ conservation efforts should focus on areas identified based on key environmental factors and predicted migration pathways to ensure the species’ long-term survival. This study provides both theoretical and practical guidance for the conservation of this species and its vulnerable habitat.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/1/86<i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i>MaxEntsuitable habitatinfluencing factorsmigration pathways |
| spellingShingle | Weihao Yao Zenghui Wang Yu Fan Danyang Liu Zeyang Ding Yumei Zhou Shuyue Hu Wei Zhang Jing Ou Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt Plants <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> MaxEnt suitable habitat influencing factors migration pathways |
| title | Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt |
| title_full | Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt |
| title_short | Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt |
| title_sort | prediction of potential habitat distributions and climate change impacts on the rare species i woonyoungia septentrionalis i magnoliaceae in china based on maxent |
| topic | <i>Woonyoungia septentrionalis</i> MaxEnt suitable habitat influencing factors migration pathways |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/1/86 |
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