Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size
Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical–statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab d...
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Cambridge University Press
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Annals of Glaciology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S026030552400003X/type/journal_article |
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| author | Francis Meloche Louis Guillet Francis Gauthier Alexandre Langlois Johan Gaume |
| author_facet | Francis Meloche Louis Guillet Francis Gauthier Alexandre Langlois Johan Gaume |
| author_sort | Francis Meloche |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical–statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab depth maps on a plane fictional slope based on Gaussian Random Fields (GRF) for a specific set of mean, variance and correlation length. For each GRF, we derive analytically the Skier Propagation Index (SPI). We then simulate multiple skier tracks and computed the probability based on the number of skier hits where SPI is below 1. Finally, we use a depth-averaged material point method to evaluate the possible avalanche size for given slab depth variations. The results of this analysis show that large correlation lengths and small variances lead to a lower probability of skier-triggering as it reduces the size and the number of areas with low slab depth. Then, we show the effect of skiing style and skier group size on skier-triggering probability. Spatial variability also affects the possible avalanche size by adding stress fluctuation causing early or late tensile failure. Finally, we demonstrate with our models the well-known relationship between the probability and the size in avalanche forecasting. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0ce41e85ab71465786f946f0a27f339a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0260-3055 1727-5644 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
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| series | Annals of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj-art-0ce41e85ab71465786f946f0a27f339a2025-08-20T02:12:06ZengCambridge University PressAnnals of Glaciology0260-30551727-56442024-01-016510.1017/aog.2024.3Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche sizeFrancis Meloche0https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5884-5597Louis Guillet1Francis Gauthier2Alexandre Langlois3Johan Gaume4Laboratoire de Géomorphologie et de Gestion des Risques en Montagnes (LGGRM), Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à, Rimouski, Canada Center for Nordic Studies, Université Laval, Québec, Canada WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, CH-7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, CH-7260 Davos Dorf, SwitzerlandUniv. Grenoble Alpes, Inria CNRS, Grenoble, FranceLaboratoire de Géomorphologie et de Gestion des Risques en Montagnes (LGGRM), Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à, Rimouski, Canada Center for Nordic Studies, Université Laval, Québec, CanadaCenter for Nordic Studies, Université Laval, Québec, Canada Groupe de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Milieux Polaire (GRIMP), Département de Géomatique, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, CanadaWSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, CH-7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, CH-7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, ETH Zürich, CH-8093 Zürich, SwitzerlandSpatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical–statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab depth maps on a plane fictional slope based on Gaussian Random Fields (GRF) for a specific set of mean, variance and correlation length. For each GRF, we derive analytically the Skier Propagation Index (SPI). We then simulate multiple skier tracks and computed the probability based on the number of skier hits where SPI is below 1. Finally, we use a depth-averaged material point method to evaluate the possible avalanche size for given slab depth variations. The results of this analysis show that large correlation lengths and small variances lead to a lower probability of skier-triggering as it reduces the size and the number of areas with low slab depth. Then, we show the effect of skiing style and skier group size on skier-triggering probability. Spatial variability also affects the possible avalanche size by adding stress fluctuation causing early or late tensile failure. Finally, we demonstrate with our models the well-known relationship between the probability and the size in avalanche forecasting.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S026030552400003X/type/journal_articleAvalanchessnowsnow mechanics |
| spellingShingle | Francis Meloche Louis Guillet Francis Gauthier Alexandre Langlois Johan Gaume Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size Annals of Glaciology Avalanches snow snow mechanics |
| title | Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
| title_full | Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
| title_fullStr | Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
| title_short | Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
| title_sort | influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier triggering probability and avalanche size |
| topic | Avalanches snow snow mechanics |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S026030552400003X/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT francismeloche influenceofslabdepthspatialvariabilityonskiertriggeringprobabilityandavalanchesize AT louisguillet influenceofslabdepthspatialvariabilityonskiertriggeringprobabilityandavalanchesize AT francisgauthier influenceofslabdepthspatialvariabilityonskiertriggeringprobabilityandavalanchesize AT alexandrelanglois influenceofslabdepthspatialvariabilityonskiertriggeringprobabilityandavalanchesize AT johangaume influenceofslabdepthspatialvariabilityonskiertriggeringprobabilityandavalanchesize |