Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China
Abstract Drylands with fragile ecosystems and severe water shortages are particularly vulnerable to climatic change. Northwestern China (NWC), a typical arid region, faces uncertainty regarding future wetting or drying trends. A comprehensive assessment and projection of these conditions are crucial...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006199 |
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| author | Chang Lu Qiang Zhang R. Iestyn Woolway Long Ma Tingxi Liu Gang Wang Deliang Sun Vijay P. Singh Yungang Bai Bolin Sun Xing Huang |
| author_facet | Chang Lu Qiang Zhang R. Iestyn Woolway Long Ma Tingxi Liu Gang Wang Deliang Sun Vijay P. Singh Yungang Bai Bolin Sun Xing Huang |
| author_sort | Chang Lu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Drylands with fragile ecosystems and severe water shortages are particularly vulnerable to climatic change. Northwestern China (NWC), a typical arid region, faces uncertainty regarding future wetting or drying trends. A comprehensive assessment and projection of these conditions are crucial for water resource management. In this study, we employ a Lagrangian trajectory model, optimal fingerprint analysis, and a maximum covariance technique to evaluate wetting and/or drying trends in NWC over the historical (1981–2023) and future (2024–2099) periods. Our results show that over 80% of NWC experienced increases in air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation during the historical period. External and internal water vapor sources contribute 92% and 8%, respectively, to precipitation changes. Incoming water vapor predominantly originated from the North Atlantic (31.9%) and the South China Sea ‐ Bay of Bengal region (39.3%), with a strong positive correlation (r = 0.71) between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and precipitation minus evaporation in NWC. Water vapor enters NWC from the southern, northern, and western boundaries, while 83.4% escapes through the eastern boundary. The precipitation trend is strongly influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings, accounting for 36.8% to the observed increase. Under a 1.5°C warming scenario, warming‐wetting regions shift northward, whereas higher warming levels (2°C, 3°C, 4°C) cause these regions to shift southeastward and shrink. Our findings underscore NWC's high sensitivity to climate warming and highlight the pressing challenge of water security in a warming world. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0cd84a7ec740451fb15906fa1773cdbd |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-0cd84a7ec740451fb15906fa1773cdbd2025-08-20T03:05:42ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-05-01135n/an/a10.1029/2025EF006199Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest ChinaChang Lu0Qiang Zhang1R. Iestyn Woolway2Long Ma3Tingxi Liu4Gang Wang5Deliang Sun6Vijay P. Singh7Yungang Bai8Bolin Sun9Xing Huang10College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Hohhot ChinaAdvanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Wastewater Information Analysis and Early Warning Beijing Normal University Zhuhai ChinaSchool of Ocean Sciences Bangor University Bangor UKCollege of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Hohhot ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Hohhot ChinaAdvanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Wastewater Information Analysis and Early Warning Beijing Normal University Zhuhai ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism Chongqing Normal University Chongqing ChinaDepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Texas A&M University College Station TX USAXinjiang Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Xinjiang ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Hohhot ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Hohhot ChinaAbstract Drylands with fragile ecosystems and severe water shortages are particularly vulnerable to climatic change. Northwestern China (NWC), a typical arid region, faces uncertainty regarding future wetting or drying trends. A comprehensive assessment and projection of these conditions are crucial for water resource management. In this study, we employ a Lagrangian trajectory model, optimal fingerprint analysis, and a maximum covariance technique to evaluate wetting and/or drying trends in NWC over the historical (1981–2023) and future (2024–2099) periods. Our results show that over 80% of NWC experienced increases in air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation during the historical period. External and internal water vapor sources contribute 92% and 8%, respectively, to precipitation changes. Incoming water vapor predominantly originated from the North Atlantic (31.9%) and the South China Sea ‐ Bay of Bengal region (39.3%), with a strong positive correlation (r = 0.71) between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and precipitation minus evaporation in NWC. Water vapor enters NWC from the southern, northern, and western boundaries, while 83.4% escapes through the eastern boundary. The precipitation trend is strongly influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings, accounting for 36.8% to the observed increase. Under a 1.5°C warming scenario, warming‐wetting regions shift northward, whereas higher warming levels (2°C, 3°C, 4°C) cause these regions to shift southeastward and shrink. Our findings underscore NWC's high sensitivity to climate warming and highlight the pressing challenge of water security in a warming world.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006199 |
| spellingShingle | Chang Lu Qiang Zhang R. Iestyn Woolway Long Ma Tingxi Liu Gang Wang Deliang Sun Vijay P. Singh Yungang Bai Bolin Sun Xing Huang Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China Earth's Future |
| title | Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China |
| title_full | Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China |
| title_fullStr | Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China |
| title_short | Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China |
| title_sort | global warming will increase the risk of water shortage in northwest china |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006199 |
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