Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-III

AimsHeart failure is a critical health issue with high mortality rates. The blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BCR) has proven more effective at predicting outcomes in heart failure patients than individual assessments of each marker. Nevertheless, the implications of varying BCR levels for outco...

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Main Authors: Changsen Zhu, Liyan Wu, Yiyi Xu, Qian Zhang, Wenbo Liu, Yuxiang Zhao, Jun Lyu, Zhuoming Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-03-01
Series:Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2025.1510317/full
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author Changsen Zhu
Liyan Wu
Yiyi Xu
Qian Zhang
Wenbo Liu
Yuxiang Zhao
Jun Lyu
Zhuoming Chen
author_facet Changsen Zhu
Liyan Wu
Yiyi Xu
Qian Zhang
Wenbo Liu
Yuxiang Zhao
Jun Lyu
Zhuoming Chen
author_sort Changsen Zhu
collection DOAJ
description AimsHeart failure is a critical health issue with high mortality rates. The blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BCR) has proven more effective at predicting outcomes in heart failure patients than individual assessments of each marker. Nevertheless, the implications of varying BCR levels for outcomes among heart failure patients remain to be fully understood. This study explores the impact of BCR on the outcomes of these patients.Methods and resultsEmploying a retrospective cohort design at a single center, this study examined 1,475 heart failure patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, categorized into four quartiles based on their BCR levels. We analyzed survival outcomes using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards models, supplemented by restricted cubic splines to elucidate detailed associations. The average age of the patients was 69.52 years, with males constituting 55.6% of the cohort. As BCR values escalated, the average hospital stay increased from 9.64 to 14.15 days, and average survival decreased from 685.11 to 412.68 days. Patients in the highest BCR quartile faced the most severe mortality rates, with 18.8% in-hospital and 78.3% long-term mortality. Nonlinear regression revealed a U-shaped relationship between BCR and mortality: at BCR levels below 12.5, there was no significant correlation with long-term mortality; between 12.5 and 22, BCR appeared to exert a protective effect; and above 22, it emerged as a significant risk factor.ConclusionsAdmission BCR values are non-linearly associated with mortality in heart failure patients, suggesting its utility as a prognostic tool in critical care.
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spelling doaj-art-0cd68c0eb09e4308ae2024d4be3b2ca52025-08-20T02:46:28ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine2297-055X2025-03-011210.3389/fcvm.2025.15103171510317Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-IIIChangsen Zhu0Liyan Wu1Yiyi Xu2Qian Zhang3Wenbo Liu4Yuxiang Zhao5Jun Lyu6Zhuoming Chen7Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Rehabilitation Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaNursing School, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Child Rehabilitation, The Ninth Hospital of Xingtai, Xingtai, Hebei, ChinaDepartment of Child Rehabilitation, The Ninth Hospital of Xingtai, Xingtai, Hebei, ChinaDepartment of Child Rehabilitation, The Ninth Hospital of Xingtai, Xingtai, Hebei, ChinaClinical Research Department, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Rehabilitation Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaAimsHeart failure is a critical health issue with high mortality rates. The blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BCR) has proven more effective at predicting outcomes in heart failure patients than individual assessments of each marker. Nevertheless, the implications of varying BCR levels for outcomes among heart failure patients remain to be fully understood. This study explores the impact of BCR on the outcomes of these patients.Methods and resultsEmploying a retrospective cohort design at a single center, this study examined 1,475 heart failure patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, categorized into four quartiles based on their BCR levels. We analyzed survival outcomes using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards models, supplemented by restricted cubic splines to elucidate detailed associations. The average age of the patients was 69.52 years, with males constituting 55.6% of the cohort. As BCR values escalated, the average hospital stay increased from 9.64 to 14.15 days, and average survival decreased from 685.11 to 412.68 days. Patients in the highest BCR quartile faced the most severe mortality rates, with 18.8% in-hospital and 78.3% long-term mortality. Nonlinear regression revealed a U-shaped relationship between BCR and mortality: at BCR levels below 12.5, there was no significant correlation with long-term mortality; between 12.5 and 22, BCR appeared to exert a protective effect; and above 22, it emerged as a significant risk factor.ConclusionsAdmission BCR values are non-linearly associated with mortality in heart failure patients, suggesting its utility as a prognostic tool in critical care.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2025.1510317/fullheart failureretrospective cohortblood nitrogencreatinineoutcomes
spellingShingle Changsen Zhu
Liyan Wu
Yiyi Xu
Qian Zhang
Wenbo Liu
Yuxiang Zhao
Jun Lyu
Zhuoming Chen
Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-III
Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine
heart failure
retrospective cohort
blood nitrogen
creatinine
outcomes
title Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-III
title_full Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-III
title_fullStr Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-III
title_full_unstemmed Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-III
title_short Predicting mortality in heart failure: BUN/creatinine ratio in MIMIC-III
title_sort predicting mortality in heart failure bun creatinine ratio in mimic iii
topic heart failure
retrospective cohort
blood nitrogen
creatinine
outcomes
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2025.1510317/full
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