A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort study
Background Minimal change disease (MCD) is a common pathological type of nephrotic syndrome. Relapses of MCD present a significant challenge for patients. This study aims to develop a predictive model for evaluating the probability of relapse in patients with MCD.Methods This study enrolled 152 pati...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Renal Failure |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2423007 |
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| author | Lefeng Wang Qinfan Yao Ying Zhang Xuan Zhang Mengjie Hu Jianpeng Chen Xiayu Li Jianghua Chen Heng Li |
| author_facet | Lefeng Wang Qinfan Yao Ying Zhang Xuan Zhang Mengjie Hu Jianpeng Chen Xiayu Li Jianghua Chen Heng Li |
| author_sort | Lefeng Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Minimal change disease (MCD) is a common pathological type of nephrotic syndrome. Relapses of MCD present a significant challenge for patients. This study aims to develop a predictive model for evaluating the probability of relapse in patients with MCD.Methods This study enrolled 152 patients with biopsy-confirmed MCD, all of whom received exclusive glucocorticoid treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, between October 2012 and April 2021. The Cox regression analysis was utilized to identify the risk factors associated with the relapse in MCD, and a nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of relapse.Results The results demonstrated that serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels > 936 IU/mL, age ≤ 30 years old, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 90 mL/(min × 1.73 m2), serum total cholesterol (TCh) levels > 12.3 mmol/L, and time to remission were independent risk factors associated with relapses in patients with MCD. A nomogram was established and achieved a concordance index of 0.726 (95% CI = 0.659–0.793). The receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated areas under the curve of 0.771, 0.853, and 0.811 for the prediction of relapse at 1-, 2-, and 3-year intervals after achieving remission in MCD patients respectively. These findings along with the calibration curves indicated the good discrimination and calibration performance of the nomogram in this cohort.Conclusion: The established nomogram provides a valuable tool for the identification of patients with MCD who are at risk of relapse, which may facilitate prompt treatment for these patients. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0cc54319892b4f8fa44cb7c52ecb8d2a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0886-022X 1525-6049 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renal Failure |
| spelling | doaj-art-0cc54319892b4f8fa44cb7c52ecb8d2a2025-08-20T03:21:31ZengTaylor & Francis GroupRenal Failure0886-022X1525-60492024-12-0146210.1080/0886022X.2024.2423007A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort studyLefeng Wang0Qinfan Yao1Ying Zhang2Xuan Zhang3Mengjie Hu4Jianpeng Chen5Xiayu Li6Jianghua Chen7Heng Li8Kidney Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaKidney Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaKidney Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaKey Laboratory of Reproductive Genetics (Ministry of Education), Department of Reproductive Endocrinology, Women’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaKidney Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaKidney Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaKidney Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaBackground Minimal change disease (MCD) is a common pathological type of nephrotic syndrome. Relapses of MCD present a significant challenge for patients. This study aims to develop a predictive model for evaluating the probability of relapse in patients with MCD.Methods This study enrolled 152 patients with biopsy-confirmed MCD, all of whom received exclusive glucocorticoid treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, between October 2012 and April 2021. The Cox regression analysis was utilized to identify the risk factors associated with the relapse in MCD, and a nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of relapse.Results The results demonstrated that serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels > 936 IU/mL, age ≤ 30 years old, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 90 mL/(min × 1.73 m2), serum total cholesterol (TCh) levels > 12.3 mmol/L, and time to remission were independent risk factors associated with relapses in patients with MCD. A nomogram was established and achieved a concordance index of 0.726 (95% CI = 0.659–0.793). The receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated areas under the curve of 0.771, 0.853, and 0.811 for the prediction of relapse at 1-, 2-, and 3-year intervals after achieving remission in MCD patients respectively. These findings along with the calibration curves indicated the good discrimination and calibration performance of the nomogram in this cohort.Conclusion: The established nomogram provides a valuable tool for the identification of patients with MCD who are at risk of relapse, which may facilitate prompt treatment for these patients.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2423007Minimal change diseasenomogramrelapserisk factorserum IgE levels |
| spellingShingle | Lefeng Wang Qinfan Yao Ying Zhang Xuan Zhang Mengjie Hu Jianpeng Chen Xiayu Li Jianghua Chen Heng Li A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort study Renal Failure Minimal change disease nomogram relapse risk factor serum IgE levels |
| title | A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_full | A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_fullStr | A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_short | A nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease: a retrospective cohort study |
| title_sort | nomogram to predict the risk of relapse in patients with minimal change disease a retrospective cohort study |
| topic | Minimal change disease nomogram relapse risk factor serum IgE levels |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2423007 |
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