Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau
ABSTRACT Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on species distribution is crucial for the conservation of threatened taxa. The Saxifragaceae family, known for its susceptibility to habitat disturbance, exhibits a diverse distribution across multiple regions. While a significant propo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71899 |
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| author | Yang Lv Zhaxi Cairang Chenglin Sun Xu Su Yuping Liu Yonghui Zhou Kaiyue Wei Xu Feng Jieqiong Lei Yinghui Zheng Xuanlin Gao Mir Muhammad Nizamani |
| author_facet | Yang Lv Zhaxi Cairang Chenglin Sun Xu Su Yuping Liu Yonghui Zhou Kaiyue Wei Xu Feng Jieqiong Lei Yinghui Zheng Xuanlin Gao Mir Muhammad Nizamani |
| author_sort | Yang Lv |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on species distribution is crucial for the conservation of threatened taxa. The Saxifragaceae family, known for its susceptibility to habitat disturbance, exhibits a diverse distribution across multiple regions. While a significant proportion of this family is found on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau (QXP), nearly half of the Saxifraga species are native to Europe, with other genera, such as Heuchera, showing centers of diversity in North America and Japan. This study applies the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model in combination with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the potential influence of climate change on the distribution and species richness of four endangered Saxifragaceae species (Saxifraga cernua L., Saxifraga tangutica Engl., Saxifraga przewalskii Engl. ex‐Maxim., Saxifraga unguiculata Engl.) on the QXP, spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2080. Our findings reveal that key environmental factors, including elevation, slope, mean annual temperature, isothermality, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation during the wettest quarter, significantly influence species distribution patterns. Historical climate models suggest that approximately 30% of the QXP provided highly suitable habitat for Saxifragaceae species, a proportion that has increased to over 30% in current projections, with this trend expected to persist across the next three time intervals. Optimal habitats were identified in the southeastern QXP, western Sichuan, and northern Yunnan. Projections indicate that these taxa will likely shift southward in response to ongoing climate changes. These results highlight the need for targeted conservation strategies, emphasizing the establishment of protected areas in southeastern QXP to preserve these vulnerable species of Saxifragaceae. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0ca1fc2159cf466facace980a1d5727d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-0ca1fc2159cf466facace980a1d5727d2025-08-25T08:11:24ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-08-01158n/an/a10.1002/ece3.71899Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang PlateauYang Lv0Zhaxi Cairang1Chenglin Sun2Xu Su3Yuping Liu4Yonghui Zhou5Kaiyue Wei6Xu Feng7Jieqiong Lei8Yinghui Zheng9Xuanlin Gao10Mir Muhammad Nizamani11School of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaGanzhou Research Institute of Vegetables and Flowers Ganzhou ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaSchool of Life Sciences Qinghai Normal University Xining ChinaInstitute of Marine Sciences, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster Prediction and Prevention Shantou University Shantou ChinaABSTRACT Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on species distribution is crucial for the conservation of threatened taxa. The Saxifragaceae family, known for its susceptibility to habitat disturbance, exhibits a diverse distribution across multiple regions. While a significant proportion of this family is found on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau (QXP), nearly half of the Saxifraga species are native to Europe, with other genera, such as Heuchera, showing centers of diversity in North America and Japan. This study applies the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model in combination with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the potential influence of climate change on the distribution and species richness of four endangered Saxifragaceae species (Saxifraga cernua L., Saxifraga tangutica Engl., Saxifraga przewalskii Engl. ex‐Maxim., Saxifraga unguiculata Engl.) on the QXP, spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2080. Our findings reveal that key environmental factors, including elevation, slope, mean annual temperature, isothermality, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation during the wettest quarter, significantly influence species distribution patterns. Historical climate models suggest that approximately 30% of the QXP provided highly suitable habitat for Saxifragaceae species, a proportion that has increased to over 30% in current projections, with this trend expected to persist across the next three time intervals. Optimal habitats were identified in the southeastern QXP, western Sichuan, and northern Yunnan. Projections indicate that these taxa will likely shift southward in response to ongoing climate changes. These results highlight the need for targeted conservation strategies, emphasizing the establishment of protected areas in southeastern QXP to preserve these vulnerable species of Saxifragaceae.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71899climate changeclimatic scenariomaximum entropy modelpotential distributionSaxifragaceaeshared socioeconomic pathway |
| spellingShingle | Yang Lv Zhaxi Cairang Chenglin Sun Xu Su Yuping Liu Yonghui Zhou Kaiyue Wei Xu Feng Jieqiong Lei Yinghui Zheng Xuanlin Gao Mir Muhammad Nizamani Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau Ecology and Evolution climate change climatic scenario maximum entropy model potential distribution Saxifragaceae shared socioeconomic pathway |
| title | Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau |
| title_full | Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau |
| title_short | Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau |
| title_sort | predicting the implications of climatic alterations on the distribution of endangered species a case study of saxifragaceae on the qinghai xizang plateau |
| topic | climate change climatic scenario maximum entropy model potential distribution Saxifragaceae shared socioeconomic pathway |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71899 |
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