Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0
Abstract There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting l...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004402 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850243152266395648 |
|---|---|
| author | Julia L. Blanchard Camilla Novaglio Olivier Maury Cheryl S. Harrison Colleen M. Petrik Denisse Fierro‐Arcos Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz Tyler D. Eddy Ryan Heneghan Kelsey Roberts Jacob Schewe Daniele Bianchi Jerome Guiet P. Daniel van Denderen Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes Xiao Liu Charles A. Stock Yannick Rousseau Matthias Büchner Ezekiel O. Adekoya Cathy Bulman William Cheung Villy Christensen Marta Coll Leonardo Capitani Samik Datta Elizabeth A. Fulton Alba Fuster Victoria Garza Matthieu Lengaigne Max Lindmark Kieran Murphy Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh Sowdamini S. Prasad Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos Jonathan C. Reum Nina Rynne Kim J. N. Scherrer Yunne‐Jai Shin Jeroen Steenbeek Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats Yan‐Lun Wu Derek P. Tittensor |
| author_facet | Julia L. Blanchard Camilla Novaglio Olivier Maury Cheryl S. Harrison Colleen M. Petrik Denisse Fierro‐Arcos Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz Tyler D. Eddy Ryan Heneghan Kelsey Roberts Jacob Schewe Daniele Bianchi Jerome Guiet P. Daniel van Denderen Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes Xiao Liu Charles A. Stock Yannick Rousseau Matthias Büchner Ezekiel O. Adekoya Cathy Bulman William Cheung Villy Christensen Marta Coll Leonardo Capitani Samik Datta Elizabeth A. Fulton Alba Fuster Victoria Garza Matthieu Lengaigne Max Lindmark Kieran Murphy Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh Sowdamini S. Prasad Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos Jonathan C. Reum Nina Rynne Kim J. N. Scherrer Yunne‐Jai Shin Jeroen Steenbeek Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats Yan‐Lun Wu Derek P. Tittensor |
| author_sort | Julia L. Blanchard |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0c90be6b95424a2ca4d3e438825e2a1e |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-0c90be6b95424a2ca4d3e438825e2a1e2025-08-20T02:00:03ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-12-011212n/an/a10.1029/2023EF004402Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0Julia L. Blanchard0Camilla Novaglio1Olivier Maury2Cheryl S. Harrison3Colleen M. Petrik4Denisse Fierro‐Arcos5Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros6Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz7Tyler D. Eddy8Ryan Heneghan9Kelsey Roberts10Jacob Schewe11Daniele Bianchi12Jerome Guiet13P. Daniel van Denderen14Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes15Xiao Liu16Charles A. Stock17Yannick Rousseau18Matthias Büchner19Ezekiel O. Adekoya20Cathy Bulman21William Cheung22Villy Christensen23Marta Coll24Leonardo Capitani25Samik Datta26Elizabeth A. Fulton27Alba Fuster28Victoria Garza29Matthieu Lengaigne30Max Lindmark31Kieran Murphy32Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh33Sowdamini S. Prasad34Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos35Jonathan C. Reum36Nina Rynne37Kim J. N. Scherrer38Yunne‐Jai Shin39Jeroen Steenbeek40Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats41Yan‐Lun Wu42Derek P. Tittensor43Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaIRD University Montpellier Ifremer CNRS INRAE MARBEC Montpellier FranceDepartment of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USAScripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USAInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaDepartment of Biological Sciences University of Cape Town Cape Town South AfricaCentre for Fisheries Ecosystem Research Fisheries & Marine Institute Memorial University St. John's NL CanadaCentre for Fisheries Ecosystem Research Fisheries & Marine Institute Memorial University St. John's NL CanadaSchool of Environment and Science Griffith University Nathan QLD AustraliaDepartment of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USAPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USADTU Aqua Technical University of Denmark Lyngby DenmarkInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC CanadaNOAA OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USANOAA OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USAInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaCSIRO Environment Hobart TAS AustraliaInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC CanadaInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC CanadaEcopath International Initiative Barcelona SpainPost‐Graduate Program in Ecology Bioscience Institute Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte Natal BrazilPopulation Modelling Group National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington New ZealandCentre for Marine Socioecology University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaInstitute of Marine Science (ICM) ‐ CSIC. Passeig Maritim de Barcelona Barcelona SpainDepartment of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USAIRD University Montpellier Ifremer CNRS INRAE MARBEC Montpellier FranceDepartment of Aquatic Resources Institute of Marine Research Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Lysekil SwedenInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaInstitute of Marine Science (ICM) ‐ CSIC. Passeig Maritim de Barcelona Barcelona SpainInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaAustralian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaNOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center Seattle WA USAInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaDepartment of Biological Sciences University of Bergen Bergen NorwayIRD University Montpellier Ifremer CNRS INRAE MARBEC Montpellier FranceEcopath International Initiative Barcelona SpainPacific Islands Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Honolulu HI USAInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaDepartment of Biology Dalhousie University Halifax NS CanadaAbstract There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004402global changeclimate projectionsmarine ecosystem modelingfuture scenariossustainable oceansfisheries |
| spellingShingle | Julia L. Blanchard Camilla Novaglio Olivier Maury Cheryl S. Harrison Colleen M. Petrik Denisse Fierro‐Arcos Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz Tyler D. Eddy Ryan Heneghan Kelsey Roberts Jacob Schewe Daniele Bianchi Jerome Guiet P. Daniel van Denderen Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes Xiao Liu Charles A. Stock Yannick Rousseau Matthias Büchner Ezekiel O. Adekoya Cathy Bulman William Cheung Villy Christensen Marta Coll Leonardo Capitani Samik Datta Elizabeth A. Fulton Alba Fuster Victoria Garza Matthieu Lengaigne Max Lindmark Kieran Murphy Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh Sowdamini S. Prasad Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos Jonathan C. Reum Nina Rynne Kim J. N. Scherrer Yunne‐Jai Shin Jeroen Steenbeek Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats Yan‐Lun Wu Derek P. Tittensor Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 Earth's Future global change climate projections marine ecosystem modeling future scenarios sustainable oceans fisheries |
| title | Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 |
| title_full | Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 |
| title_fullStr | Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 |
| title_short | Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 |
| title_sort | detecting attributing and projecting global marine ecosystem and fisheries change fishmip 2 0 |
| topic | global change climate projections marine ecosystem modeling future scenarios sustainable oceans fisheries |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004402 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT julialblanchard detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT camillanovaglio detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT oliviermaury detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT cherylsharrison detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT colleenmpetrik detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT denissefierroarcos detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT kellyortegacisneros detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT andreabryndumbuchholz detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT tylerdeddy detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT ryanheneghan detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT kelseyroberts detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT jacobschewe detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT danielebianchi detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT jeromeguiet detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT pdanielvandenderen detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT julianopalaciosabrantes detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT xiaoliu detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT charlesastock detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT yannickrousseau detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT matthiasbuchner detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT ezekieloadekoya detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT cathybulman detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT williamcheung detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT villychristensen detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT martacoll detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT leonardocapitani detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT samikdatta detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT elizabethafulton detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT albafuster detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT victoriagarza detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT matthieulengaigne detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT maxlindmark detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT kieranmurphy detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT jazelouledcheikh detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT sowdaminisprasad detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT ricardooliverosramos detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT jonathancreum detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT ninarynne detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT kimjnscherrer detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT yunnejaishin detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT jeroensteenbeek detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT phoebewoodworthjefcoats detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT yanlunwu detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 AT derekptittensor detectingattributingandprojectingglobalmarineecosystemandfisherieschangefishmip20 |