Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic
Mass testing to identify and isolate infected individuals is a promising approach for reducing harm from the next acute respiratory virus pandemic. It offers the prospect of averting hospitalizations and deaths whilst avoiding the need for indiscriminate social distancing measures. To understand sce...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000732 |
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| author | James Petrie James A. Hay Oraya Srimokla Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths Charles Whittaker Joanna Masel |
| author_facet | James Petrie James A. Hay Oraya Srimokla Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths Charles Whittaker Joanna Masel |
| author_sort | James Petrie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mass testing to identify and isolate infected individuals is a promising approach for reducing harm from the next acute respiratory virus pandemic. It offers the prospect of averting hospitalizations and deaths whilst avoiding the need for indiscriminate social distancing measures. To understand scenarios where mass testing might or might not be a viable intervention, here we modeled how effectiveness depends both on characteristics of the pathogen (R0, time to peak viral load) and on the testing strategy (limit of detection, testing frequency, test turnaround time, adherence). We base time-dependent test sensitivity and time-dependent infectiousness on an underlying viral load trajectory model. We show that given moderately high public adherence, frequent testing can prevent as many transmissions as more costly interventions such as school or business closures. With very high adherence and fast, frequent, and sensitive testing, we show that most respiratory virus pandemics could be controlled with mass testing alone. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0b8f9bb71f8948fa922cdff7e49a80d0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj-art-0b8f9bb71f8948fa922cdff7e49a80d02025-02-08T05:00:02ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652025-03-0150100812Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemicJames Petrie0James A. Hay1Oraya Srimokla2Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths3Charles Whittaker4Joanna Masel5Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; Corresponding author at: Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, United KingdomNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United KingdomPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; UK Health Security Agency, United Kingdom; The Queen’s College, University of Oxford, United KingdomDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, United KingdomEcology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, United States of AmericaMass testing to identify and isolate infected individuals is a promising approach for reducing harm from the next acute respiratory virus pandemic. It offers the prospect of averting hospitalizations and deaths whilst avoiding the need for indiscriminate social distancing measures. To understand scenarios where mass testing might or might not be a viable intervention, here we modeled how effectiveness depends both on characteristics of the pathogen (R0, time to peak viral load) and on the testing strategy (limit of detection, testing frequency, test turnaround time, adherence). We base time-dependent test sensitivity and time-dependent infectiousness on an underlying viral load trajectory model. We show that given moderately high public adherence, frequent testing can prevent as many transmissions as more costly interventions such as school or business closures. With very high adherence and fast, frequent, and sensitive testing, we show that most respiratory virus pandemics could be controlled with mass testing alone.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000732Mass testingMathematical modelNon-pharmaceutical interventionPandemic responseTest sensitivity |
| spellingShingle | James Petrie James A. Hay Oraya Srimokla Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths Charles Whittaker Joanna Masel Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic Epidemics Mass testing Mathematical model Non-pharmaceutical intervention Pandemic response Test sensitivity |
| title | Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic |
| title_full | Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic |
| title_fullStr | Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic |
| title_short | Enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic |
| title_sort | enhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemic |
| topic | Mass testing Mathematical model Non-pharmaceutical intervention Pandemic response Test sensitivity |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000732 |
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