Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.

The war-related migrations from Ukraine to Poland have resulted in an increased prevalence of individuals diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) A6 variant. We examined the impact of the influx of people living with HIV (PLWH) displaced from Ukraine on the emergence of transmissi...

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Main Authors: Karol Serwin, Kaja Mielczak, Anna Urbańska, Bogusz Aksak-Wąs, Malwina Karasińska-Cieślak, Piotr Ząbek, Ewa Siwak, Iwona Cielniak, Elżbieta Jabłonowska, Paweł Jakubowski, Błażej Rozpłochowski, Aleksandra Szymczak, Bartosz Szetela, Anna Kalinowska-Nowak, Monika Bociąga-Jasik, Elżbieta Mularska, Adam Witor, Anita Olczak, Władysław Łojewski, Maria Hlebowicz, Miłosz Parczewski
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2025-08-01
Series:PLoS Pathogens
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1013369
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author Karol Serwin
Kaja Mielczak
Anna Urbańska
Bogusz Aksak-Wąs
Malwina Karasińska-Cieślak
Piotr Ząbek
Ewa Siwak
Iwona Cielniak
Elżbieta Jabłonowska
Paweł Jakubowski
Błażej Rozpłochowski
Aleksandra Szymczak
Bartosz Szetela
Anna Kalinowska-Nowak
Monika Bociąga-Jasik
Elżbieta Mularska
Adam Witor
Anita Olczak
Władysław Łojewski
Maria Hlebowicz
Miłosz Parczewski
author_facet Karol Serwin
Kaja Mielczak
Anna Urbańska
Bogusz Aksak-Wąs
Malwina Karasińska-Cieślak
Piotr Ząbek
Ewa Siwak
Iwona Cielniak
Elżbieta Jabłonowska
Paweł Jakubowski
Błażej Rozpłochowski
Aleksandra Szymczak
Bartosz Szetela
Anna Kalinowska-Nowak
Monika Bociąga-Jasik
Elżbieta Mularska
Adam Witor
Anita Olczak
Władysław Łojewski
Maria Hlebowicz
Miłosz Parczewski
author_sort Karol Serwin
collection DOAJ
description The war-related migrations from Ukraine to Poland have resulted in an increased prevalence of individuals diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) A6 variant. We examined the impact of the influx of people living with HIV (PLWH) displaced from Ukraine on the emergence of transmission events and evolving patterns in the A6 epidemic in Poland. We created a dataset of 13,696 unique HIV-1 pol gene fragments of sub-subtype A6 including 1,889 sequences from Poland. To evaluate the import of distinct clusters and estimate dispersal dynamics, we performed time calibration of the maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees and phylogeographic inferences using the software package BEAST with discrete and continuous diffusion models. Our results indicated that A6 infections among males predominated within the domestic population (76.1%, n = 1,437), primarily within large clusters. Among Ukrainian migrants, 69.5% of the cases occurred as singletons or dyads (n = 473; p < 0.0001) with a balanced male-to-female ratio of 1.1. Since the war, the contribution of HIV-acquired individuals born in Ukraine to the virus circulation in Poland has increased to 30.2%, with an additional 334 distinct A6 introductions, inferred as internal nodes and descendant clusters that likely entered Poland from other countries. These migration events were concentrated in the central regions with a higher HIV prevalence. After the war outbreak in 2022, the number and complexity of A6 transmission chains in Poland expanded, driven by male-dominated domestic clusters and war-related migration. Understanding the existence of two distinct transmission dynamics is critical for designing targeted public health interventions. Halting national sub-subtype A6 circulation requires a combined approach that harmonizes the existing strategy focused on the men who have sex with men population with enhanced efforts to link migrants to care.
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spelling doaj-art-0b5ae79e8bb94d978b97320e5a594dbb2025-08-23T05:31:23ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Pathogens1553-73661553-73742025-08-01218e101336910.1371/journal.ppat.1013369Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.Karol SerwinKaja MielczakAnna UrbańskaBogusz Aksak-WąsMalwina Karasińska-CieślakPiotr ZąbekEwa SiwakIwona CielniakElżbieta JabłonowskaPaweł JakubowskiBłażej RozpłochowskiAleksandra SzymczakBartosz SzetelaAnna Kalinowska-NowakMonika Bociąga-JasikElżbieta MularskaAdam WitorAnita OlczakWładysław ŁojewskiMaria HlebowiczMiłosz ParczewskiThe war-related migrations from Ukraine to Poland have resulted in an increased prevalence of individuals diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) A6 variant. We examined the impact of the influx of people living with HIV (PLWH) displaced from Ukraine on the emergence of transmission events and evolving patterns in the A6 epidemic in Poland. We created a dataset of 13,696 unique HIV-1 pol gene fragments of sub-subtype A6 including 1,889 sequences from Poland. To evaluate the import of distinct clusters and estimate dispersal dynamics, we performed time calibration of the maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees and phylogeographic inferences using the software package BEAST with discrete and continuous diffusion models. Our results indicated that A6 infections among males predominated within the domestic population (76.1%, n = 1,437), primarily within large clusters. Among Ukrainian migrants, 69.5% of the cases occurred as singletons or dyads (n = 473; p < 0.0001) with a balanced male-to-female ratio of 1.1. Since the war, the contribution of HIV-acquired individuals born in Ukraine to the virus circulation in Poland has increased to 30.2%, with an additional 334 distinct A6 introductions, inferred as internal nodes and descendant clusters that likely entered Poland from other countries. These migration events were concentrated in the central regions with a higher HIV prevalence. After the war outbreak in 2022, the number and complexity of A6 transmission chains in Poland expanded, driven by male-dominated domestic clusters and war-related migration. Understanding the existence of two distinct transmission dynamics is critical for designing targeted public health interventions. Halting national sub-subtype A6 circulation requires a combined approach that harmonizes the existing strategy focused on the men who have sex with men population with enhanced efforts to link migrants to care.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1013369
spellingShingle Karol Serwin
Kaja Mielczak
Anna Urbańska
Bogusz Aksak-Wąs
Malwina Karasińska-Cieślak
Piotr Ząbek
Ewa Siwak
Iwona Cielniak
Elżbieta Jabłonowska
Paweł Jakubowski
Błażej Rozpłochowski
Aleksandra Szymczak
Bartosz Szetela
Anna Kalinowska-Nowak
Monika Bociąga-Jasik
Elżbieta Mularska
Adam Witor
Anita Olczak
Władysław Łojewski
Maria Hlebowicz
Miłosz Parczewski
Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.
PLoS Pathogens
title Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.
title_full Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.
title_fullStr Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.
title_full_unstemmed Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.
title_short Comparison of HIV-1 A6 dispersal dynamics in Poland before and after the war in Ukraine.
title_sort comparison of hiv 1 a6 dispersal dynamics in poland before and after the war in ukraine
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1013369
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