Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios
Abstract Numerous studies have explored global warming impact on tropical cyclones (TCs), but post-global warming TC activity remains poorly understood. This study analyzed 400-year evolution of TC characteristics in CO2 emission-driven ensemble experiments performed with the CESM2 model under net-z...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01122-9 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849329594078855168 |
|---|---|
| author | Mincheol Moon Seung-Ki Min Jung-Eun Chu Soon-Il An Seok-Woo Son Hamish Ramsay Zhuo Wang |
| author_facet | Mincheol Moon Seung-Ki Min Jung-Eun Chu Soon-Il An Seok-Woo Son Hamish Ramsay Zhuo Wang |
| author_sort | Mincheol Moon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Numerous studies have explored global warming impact on tropical cyclones (TCs), but post-global warming TC activity remains poorly understood. This study analyzed 400-year evolution of TC characteristics in CO2 emission-driven ensemble experiments performed with the CESM2 model under net-zero (ZeroE) and negative CO2 emission (NegE) scenarios. Findings reveal a hemispheric asymmetry in TC track changes, with the Northern Hemisphere seeing a decrease and the Southern Hemisphere an increase. Under the ZeroE scenario, asymmetry persists for 300 years, while the NegE scenario mitigates it within 200 years. This asymmetry is influenced by changes in mid-level humidity, vertical wind shear, and sea surface temperature gradients. Unlike the TC frequency, maximum wind speeds and rainfall associated with landfalling TCs are enhanced globally in the ZeroE scenario, while alleviated in the NegE scenario. These results indicate that a carbon-neutral strategy is not sufficient and that more ambitious negative emission efforts are needed to mitigate TC impacts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0b037dcb9d2e415480e7c9c18585ddba |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-0b037dcb9d2e415480e7c9c18585ddba2025-08-20T03:47:13ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-06-01811910.1038/s41612-025-01122-9Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenariosMincheol Moon0Seung-Ki Min1Jung-Eun Chu2Soon-Il An3Seok-Woo Son4Hamish Ramsay5Zhuo Wang6Division of Environmental Science & Engineering, Pohang University of Science and TechnologyDivision of Environmental Science & Engineering, Pohang University of Science and TechnologySchool of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong KongDivision of Environmental Science & Engineering, Pohang University of Science and TechnologySchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National UniversityCSIRO EnvironmentUniversity of Illinois at Urbana–ChampaignAbstract Numerous studies have explored global warming impact on tropical cyclones (TCs), but post-global warming TC activity remains poorly understood. This study analyzed 400-year evolution of TC characteristics in CO2 emission-driven ensemble experiments performed with the CESM2 model under net-zero (ZeroE) and negative CO2 emission (NegE) scenarios. Findings reveal a hemispheric asymmetry in TC track changes, with the Northern Hemisphere seeing a decrease and the Southern Hemisphere an increase. Under the ZeroE scenario, asymmetry persists for 300 years, while the NegE scenario mitigates it within 200 years. This asymmetry is influenced by changes in mid-level humidity, vertical wind shear, and sea surface temperature gradients. Unlike the TC frequency, maximum wind speeds and rainfall associated with landfalling TCs are enhanced globally in the ZeroE scenario, while alleviated in the NegE scenario. These results indicate that a carbon-neutral strategy is not sufficient and that more ambitious negative emission efforts are needed to mitigate TC impacts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01122-9 |
| spellingShingle | Mincheol Moon Seung-Ki Min Jung-Eun Chu Soon-Il An Seok-Woo Son Hamish Ramsay Zhuo Wang Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios |
| title_full | Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios |
| title_short | Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios |
| title_sort | tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01122-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mincheolmoon tropicalcycloneresponsetoambitiousdecarbonizationscenarios AT seungkimin tropicalcycloneresponsetoambitiousdecarbonizationscenarios AT jungeunchu tropicalcycloneresponsetoambitiousdecarbonizationscenarios AT soonilan tropicalcycloneresponsetoambitiousdecarbonizationscenarios AT seokwooson tropicalcycloneresponsetoambitiousdecarbonizationscenarios AT hamishramsay tropicalcycloneresponsetoambitiousdecarbonizationscenarios AT zhuowang tropicalcycloneresponsetoambitiousdecarbonizationscenarios |