Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021
BackgroundSubarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a major global health concern associated with disproportionately high morbidity and mortality. The BRICS-plus nations (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa, and six other new members), account for a substantial proportion of the global pop...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-07-01
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| author | Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang |
| author_facet | Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang |
| author_sort | Liang Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundSubarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a major global health concern associated with disproportionately high morbidity and mortality. The BRICS-plus nations (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa, and six other new members), account for a substantial proportion of the global population while being confronted with distinct public health challenges. This study aims to examine epidemiological trends and regional variations in SAH burden across BRICS-plus nations through comprehensive and timely analysis.MethodsData on the number, all-age rate, age-standardized rate, and relative change in SAH incidence from 1992 to 2021 across eleven BRICS-plus members were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Associations between the incidence rate and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were assessed through Pearson correlation analyses. Furthermore, age-period-cohort modeling was utilized to quantify net drift, local drift, age, period, and cohort effects over the past three decades.ResultsExcept for China, SAH cases were observed to have significantly increased in the other ten BRICS members from 1992 to 2021. All BRICS-plus countries exhibited a declining trend in the age-standardized incidence rate over the study period. Indonesia reported the highest age-standardized incidence rate (10.94 per 100,000 population) in 2021, while China displayed the most significant decrease, at 59.36%. The annual net drift in the SAH incidence rate ranged from −3.36%% for China to −0.50% for the Russian Federation among the eleven countries. A significant negative correlation was observed between the incidence rate of SAH and SDI values. Nations displayed similar age-effect patterns characterized by initial declines followed by subsequent increases with advancing age, along with distinct period and cohort effects that may reflect variations in control measures and temporal burden patterns.ConclusionOur study demonstrates the overall decline in age standardized incidence rate of SAH, while highlighting the persistent health inequalities among eleven countries potentially attributable to socioeconomic disparities. Furthermore, the findings underscore the imperative for tailored interventions across age, period, and cohort dimensions to mitigate SAH-specific challenges in nations undergoing rapid development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0ae6289ecaaa4681818a79e7cff14e28 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2296-858X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-0ae6289ecaaa4681818a79e7cff14e282025-08-20T03:28:50ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Medicine2296-858X2025-07-011210.3389/fmed.2025.15823571582357Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021Liang Guo0Liang Guo1Liang Guo2Liang Guo3Liang Guo4Dan Song5Dan Song6Dan Song7Dan Song8Dan Song9Li Chen10Li Chen11Li Chen12Li Chen13Li Chen14Ying Huang15Ying Huang16Ying Huang17Ying Huang18Ying Huang19Dermatology Hospital of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJiangxi Provincial Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaCandidate Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJXHC Key Laboratory of Skin Infection and Immunity, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Affiliated Dermatology Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDermatology Hospital of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJiangxi Provincial Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaCandidate Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJXHC Key Laboratory of Skin Infection and Immunity, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Affiliated Dermatology Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDermatology Hospital of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJiangxi Provincial Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaCandidate Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJXHC Key Laboratory of Skin Infection and Immunity, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Affiliated Dermatology Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDermatology Hospital of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJiangxi Provincial Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaCandidate Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaJXHC Key Laboratory of Skin Infection and Immunity, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaThe Affiliated Dermatology Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaBackgroundSubarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a major global health concern associated with disproportionately high morbidity and mortality. The BRICS-plus nations (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa, and six other new members), account for a substantial proportion of the global population while being confronted with distinct public health challenges. This study aims to examine epidemiological trends and regional variations in SAH burden across BRICS-plus nations through comprehensive and timely analysis.MethodsData on the number, all-age rate, age-standardized rate, and relative change in SAH incidence from 1992 to 2021 across eleven BRICS-plus members were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Associations between the incidence rate and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were assessed through Pearson correlation analyses. Furthermore, age-period-cohort modeling was utilized to quantify net drift, local drift, age, period, and cohort effects over the past three decades.ResultsExcept for China, SAH cases were observed to have significantly increased in the other ten BRICS members from 1992 to 2021. All BRICS-plus countries exhibited a declining trend in the age-standardized incidence rate over the study period. Indonesia reported the highest age-standardized incidence rate (10.94 per 100,000 population) in 2021, while China displayed the most significant decrease, at 59.36%. The annual net drift in the SAH incidence rate ranged from −3.36%% for China to −0.50% for the Russian Federation among the eleven countries. A significant negative correlation was observed between the incidence rate of SAH and SDI values. Nations displayed similar age-effect patterns characterized by initial declines followed by subsequent increases with advancing age, along with distinct period and cohort effects that may reflect variations in control measures and temporal burden patterns.ConclusionOur study demonstrates the overall decline in age standardized incidence rate of SAH, while highlighting the persistent health inequalities among eleven countries potentially attributable to socioeconomic disparities. Furthermore, the findings underscore the imperative for tailored interventions across age, period, and cohort dimensions to mitigate SAH-specific challenges in nations undergoing rapid development.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1582357/fullsubarachnoid hemorrhageBRICS-plusincidenceage-period-cohort modelpublic healthtrend |
| spellingShingle | Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Liang Guo Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Dan Song Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Li Chen Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang Ying Huang Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021 Frontiers in Medicine subarachnoid hemorrhage BRICS-plus incidence age-period-cohort model public health trend |
| title | Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021 |
| title_full | Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021 |
| title_short | Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021 |
| title_sort | epidemiological trends and age period cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the brics plus from 1992 to 2021 |
| topic | subarachnoid hemorrhage BRICS-plus incidence age-period-cohort model public health trend |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1582357/full |
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