Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe
Abstract Changes in hot and dry extremes in central Europe have been attributed to atmospheric circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions. However, the strength of the underlying causal links and their historical trends have not been quantified. Here, we use Causal Effect Networks (based...
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01934-2 |
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| author | Yinglin Tian Domenico Giaquinto Giorgia Di Capua Judith N. Claassen Javed Ali Hao Li Carlo De Michele |
| author_facet | Yinglin Tian Domenico Giaquinto Giorgia Di Capua Judith N. Claassen Javed Ali Hao Li Carlo De Michele |
| author_sort | Yinglin Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Changes in hot and dry extremes in central Europe have been attributed to atmospheric circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions. However, the strength of the underlying causal links and their historical trends have not been quantified. Here, we use Causal Effect Networks (based on the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence algorithm) and show that hot extreme events in central Europe are driven primarily by anomalous atmospheric patterns and soil water deficiency. Dry extreme events are mainly induced by anomalous atmospheric patterns and soil moisture memory, and only marginally by temperature changes. We find that in the period 1979–2020, the influence of dry soil on temperature has been amplified by 67% during compound hot and dry extremes, while the impact of atmospheric drivers on soil moisture has intensified by 50% (36%) during compound (single) extremes. This work highlights the strengthened causal links of compound hot and dry extremes with their underlying drivers under global warming, which can lead to non-linear interactions and increase adaptation challenges. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0a3098a2f9b341b7a2a15c8989817732 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-0a3098a2f9b341b7a2a15c89898177322025-08-20T02:37:55ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-12-015111410.1038/s43247-024-01934-2Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central EuropeYinglin Tian0Domenico Giaquinto1Giorgia Di Capua2Judith N. Claassen3Javed Ali4Hao Li5Carlo De Michele6Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)—Member of the Leibniz AssociationComplexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)—Member of the Leibniz AssociationEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)—Member of the Leibniz AssociationInstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamDepartment of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central FloridaHydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di MilanoAbstract Changes in hot and dry extremes in central Europe have been attributed to atmospheric circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions. However, the strength of the underlying causal links and their historical trends have not been quantified. Here, we use Causal Effect Networks (based on the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence algorithm) and show that hot extreme events in central Europe are driven primarily by anomalous atmospheric patterns and soil water deficiency. Dry extreme events are mainly induced by anomalous atmospheric patterns and soil moisture memory, and only marginally by temperature changes. We find that in the period 1979–2020, the influence of dry soil on temperature has been amplified by 67% during compound hot and dry extremes, while the impact of atmospheric drivers on soil moisture has intensified by 50% (36%) during compound (single) extremes. This work highlights the strengthened causal links of compound hot and dry extremes with their underlying drivers under global warming, which can lead to non-linear interactions and increase adaptation challenges.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01934-2 |
| spellingShingle | Yinglin Tian Domenico Giaquinto Giorgia Di Capua Judith N. Claassen Javed Ali Hao Li Carlo De Michele Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe |
| title_full | Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe |
| title_fullStr | Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe |
| title_short | Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe |
| title_sort | historical changes in the causal effect networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central europe |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01934-2 |
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