Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science

<p>As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance may lead to maladaptation, practitioner confusion, and “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered...

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Main Authors: W. H. Lipscomb, D. Behar, M. A. Morrison
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2025-02-01
Series:The Cryosphere
Online Access:https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/793/2025/tc-19-793-2025.pdf
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author W. H. Lipscomb
D. Behar
M. A. Morrison
author_facet W. H. Lipscomb
D. Behar
M. A. Morrison
author_sort W. H. Lipscomb
collection DOAJ
description <p>As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance may lead to maladaptation, practitioner confusion, and “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered actionable (i.e., sufficiently accepted to support near-term adaptation action) only after meeting a confidence threshold based on the strength of evidence as evaluated by a diverse group of scientific experts. We discuss an influential study that projected rapid sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but in our view was not actionable. We recommend regular, transparent communications between scientists and practitioners to support the use of actionable science.</p>
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spelling doaj-art-09d6b3777d484ee2a95daab16df23f1c2025-08-20T03:01:33ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242025-02-011979380310.5194/tc-19-793-2025Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable scienceW. H. Lipscomb0D. Behar1M. A. Morrison2Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USASan Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA, USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA<p>As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance may lead to maladaptation, practitioner confusion, and “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered actionable (i.e., sufficiently accepted to support near-term adaptation action) only after meeting a confidence threshold based on the strength of evidence as evaluated by a diverse group of scientific experts. We discuss an influential study that projected rapid sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but in our view was not actionable. We recommend regular, transparent communications between scientists and practitioners to support the use of actionable science.</p>https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/793/2025/tc-19-793-2025.pdf
spellingShingle W. H. Lipscomb
D. Behar
M. A. Morrison
Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
The Cryosphere
title Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
title_full Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
title_fullStr Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
title_full_unstemmed Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
title_short Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
title_sort brief communication sea level projections adaptation planning and actionable science
url https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/793/2025/tc-19-793-2025.pdf
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