Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
<p>As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance may lead to maladaptation, practitioner confusion, and “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/793/2025/tc-19-793-2025.pdf |
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| author | W. H. Lipscomb D. Behar M. A. Morrison |
| author_facet | W. H. Lipscomb D. Behar M. A. Morrison |
| author_sort | W. H. Lipscomb |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance may lead to maladaptation, practitioner confusion, and “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered actionable (i.e., sufficiently accepted to support near-term adaptation action) only after meeting a confidence threshold based on the strength of evidence as evaluated by a diverse group of scientific experts. We discuss an influential study that projected rapid sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but in our view was not actionable. We recommend regular, transparent communications between scientists and practitioners to support the use of actionable science.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-09d6b3777d484ee2a95daab16df23f1c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Cryosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-09d6b3777d484ee2a95daab16df23f1c2025-08-20T03:01:33ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242025-02-011979380310.5194/tc-19-793-2025Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable scienceW. H. Lipscomb0D. Behar1M. A. Morrison2Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USASan Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA, USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA<p>As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance may lead to maladaptation, practitioner confusion, and “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered actionable (i.e., sufficiently accepted to support near-term adaptation action) only after meeting a confidence threshold based on the strength of evidence as evaluated by a diverse group of scientific experts. We discuss an influential study that projected rapid sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but in our view was not actionable. We recommend regular, transparent communications between scientists and practitioners to support the use of actionable science.</p>https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/793/2025/tc-19-793-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | W. H. Lipscomb D. Behar M. A. Morrison Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science The Cryosphere |
| title | Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science |
| title_full | Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science |
| title_fullStr | Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science |
| title_full_unstemmed | Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science |
| title_short | Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science |
| title_sort | brief communication sea level projections adaptation planning and actionable science |
| url | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/19/793/2025/tc-19-793-2025.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT whlipscomb briefcommunicationsealevelprojectionsadaptationplanningandactionablescience AT dbehar briefcommunicationsealevelprojectionsadaptationplanningandactionablescience AT mamorrison briefcommunicationsealevelprojectionsadaptationplanningandactionablescience |