Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming Climate
Abstract Arctic sea ice extent grows from its September minimum through winter, influenced mainly by September sea ice conditions and atmospheric circulation during the ice‐growing season. However, the changing role of the two drivers in a warming climate remains unclear. Using large‐ensemble climat...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113601 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849723689473409024 |
|---|---|
| author | Peter Yu Feng Siew Yutian Wu Mingfang Ting Cheng Zheng |
| author_facet | Peter Yu Feng Siew Yutian Wu Mingfang Ting Cheng Zheng |
| author_sort | Peter Yu Feng Siew |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Arctic sea ice extent grows from its September minimum through winter, influenced mainly by September sea ice conditions and atmospheric circulation during the ice‐growing season. However, the changing role of the two drivers in a warming climate remains unclear. Using large‐ensemble climate model simulations and Ridge Regression, this study quantifies the changing relative importance of the two drivers from 1861 to 2100. Up until recent years, low September sea ice largely enhanced sea ice growth via a negative feedback, as open water allows more freezing when the water is still cold enough. However, this negative feedback weakens with rising Arctic air and ocean temperatures that increasingly limit and delay sea ice freezing. Atmospheric circulation will relatively play an increasing role in driving sea ice growth in the next few decades. These findings are useful in guiding future studies for improving Arctic sea ice seasonal forecasts and long‐term projections. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-09b98aef4aca420c8a4a387facb2e47c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-09b98aef4aca420c8a4a387facb2e47c2025-08-20T03:10:57ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01526n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113601Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming ClimatePeter Yu Feng Siew0Yutian Wu1Mingfang Ting2Cheng Zheng3Antarctic Research Centre Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New ZealandLamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University New York NY USALamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University New York NY USASchool of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University New York NY USAAbstract Arctic sea ice extent grows from its September minimum through winter, influenced mainly by September sea ice conditions and atmospheric circulation during the ice‐growing season. However, the changing role of the two drivers in a warming climate remains unclear. Using large‐ensemble climate model simulations and Ridge Regression, this study quantifies the changing relative importance of the two drivers from 1861 to 2100. Up until recent years, low September sea ice largely enhanced sea ice growth via a negative feedback, as open water allows more freezing when the water is still cold enough. However, this negative feedback weakens with rising Arctic air and ocean temperatures that increasingly limit and delay sea ice freezing. Atmospheric circulation will relatively play an increasing role in driving sea ice growth in the next few decades. These findings are useful in guiding future studies for improving Arctic sea ice seasonal forecasts and long‐term projections.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113601Arcic sea iceclimate changeatmospheric circulationcryosphereatmosphere‐ice interactionssea ice growth |
| spellingShingle | Peter Yu Feng Siew Yutian Wu Mingfang Ting Cheng Zheng Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming Climate Geophysical Research Letters Arcic sea ice climate change atmospheric circulation cryosphere atmosphere‐ice interactions sea ice growth |
| title | Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming Climate |
| title_full | Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming Climate |
| title_fullStr | Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming Climate |
| title_short | Identifying Physical Drivers of Arctic Sea Ice Growth and Their Changing Roles in a Warming Climate |
| title_sort | identifying physical drivers of arctic sea ice growth and their changing roles in a warming climate |
| topic | Arcic sea ice climate change atmospheric circulation cryosphere atmosphere‐ice interactions sea ice growth |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113601 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT peteryufengsiew identifyingphysicaldriversofarcticseaicegrowthandtheirchangingrolesinawarmingclimate AT yutianwu identifyingphysicaldriversofarcticseaicegrowthandtheirchangingrolesinawarmingclimate AT mingfangting identifyingphysicaldriversofarcticseaicegrowthandtheirchangingrolesinawarmingclimate AT chengzheng identifyingphysicaldriversofarcticseaicegrowthandtheirchangingrolesinawarmingclimate |