Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO Satellites
Abstract Many thermospheric mass density (TMD) variations have been recognized in observations and physical simulations; however, their impact on the low‐Earth‐orbit satellites has not been fully evaluated. The present study investigates the quantitative impact of periodic spatiotemporal TMD variati...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002336 |
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| author | Changyong He Yang Yang Brett Carter Kefei Zhang Andong Hu Wang Li Florent Deleflie Robert Norman Suqin Wu |
| author_facet | Changyong He Yang Yang Brett Carter Kefei Zhang Andong Hu Wang Li Florent Deleflie Robert Norman Suqin Wu |
| author_sort | Changyong He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Many thermospheric mass density (TMD) variations have been recognized in observations and physical simulations; however, their impact on the low‐Earth‐orbit satellites has not been fully evaluated. The present study investigates the quantitative impact of periodic spatiotemporal TMD variations modulated by the empirical DTM2013 model. Also considered are two small‐scale variations, that is, the equatorial mass anomaly and the midnight density maximum, which are reproduced by the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. This investigation is performed through a 1‐day orbit prediction (OP) simulation for a 400‐km circular orbit. The results show that the impact of TMD variations during solar maximum is 1 order of magnitude larger than that during solar minimum. The dominant impact has been found in the along‐track direction. Semiannual and semidiurnal variations in TMD exert the most significant impact on OP among the intra‐annual and intradiurnal variations, respectively. The zero mean periodic variations in TMD may not significantly affect the predicted orbit but increase the orbital uncertainty if their periods are shorter than the time span of OP. Additionally, the equatorial mass anomaly creates a mean orbit difference of 50 m (5 m) with a standard deviation of 30 m (3 m) in 1‐day OP during high (low) solar activity. The midnight density maximum exhibits a stronger impact in the order of 150±30 and 15±6 m during solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. This study makes clear that careful selection of TMD variations is of great importance to balance the trade‐off between efficiency and accuracy in OP problems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-091fa1c31c254de3bee728cf4d8c4cf9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-091fa1c31c254de3bee728cf4d8c4cf92025-01-14T16:27:14ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902020-01-01181n/an/a10.1029/2019SW002336Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO SatellitesChangyong He0Yang Yang1Brett Carter2Kefei Zhang3Andong Hu4Wang Li5Florent Deleflie6Robert Norman7Suqin Wu8SPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSchool of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics China University of Mining and Technology Xuzhou ChinaIMCCE, Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Univ. Lille Paris FranceSPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSchool of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics China University of Mining and Technology Xuzhou ChinaAbstract Many thermospheric mass density (TMD) variations have been recognized in observations and physical simulations; however, their impact on the low‐Earth‐orbit satellites has not been fully evaluated. The present study investigates the quantitative impact of periodic spatiotemporal TMD variations modulated by the empirical DTM2013 model. Also considered are two small‐scale variations, that is, the equatorial mass anomaly and the midnight density maximum, which are reproduced by the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. This investigation is performed through a 1‐day orbit prediction (OP) simulation for a 400‐km circular orbit. The results show that the impact of TMD variations during solar maximum is 1 order of magnitude larger than that during solar minimum. The dominant impact has been found in the along‐track direction. Semiannual and semidiurnal variations in TMD exert the most significant impact on OP among the intra‐annual and intradiurnal variations, respectively. The zero mean periodic variations in TMD may not significantly affect the predicted orbit but increase the orbital uncertainty if their periods are shorter than the time span of OP. Additionally, the equatorial mass anomaly creates a mean orbit difference of 50 m (5 m) with a standard deviation of 30 m (3 m) in 1‐day OP during high (low) solar activity. The midnight density maximum exhibits a stronger impact in the order of 150±30 and 15±6 m during solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. This study makes clear that careful selection of TMD variations is of great importance to balance the trade‐off between efficiency and accuracy in OP problems.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002336thermospheric mass densityorbit predictionequatorial mass anomalymidnight density maximumthermospheric mass density variations |
| spellingShingle | Changyong He Yang Yang Brett Carter Kefei Zhang Andong Hu Wang Li Florent Deleflie Robert Norman Suqin Wu Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO Satellites Space Weather thermospheric mass density orbit prediction equatorial mass anomaly midnight density maximum thermospheric mass density variations |
| title | Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO Satellites |
| title_full | Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO Satellites |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO Satellites |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO Satellites |
| title_short | Impact of Thermospheric Mass Density on the Orbit Prediction of LEO Satellites |
| title_sort | impact of thermospheric mass density on the orbit prediction of leo satellites |
| topic | thermospheric mass density orbit prediction equatorial mass anomaly midnight density maximum thermospheric mass density variations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002336 |
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