Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
<p>We live in a rapidly changing and globalized society. The increasing interdependence and interconnection of our economic, social and technical systems; growing urbanization; and increasing vulnerability to natural hazards (including climate change) are leading to ever more complex risk situ...
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Copernicus Publications
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/4631/2024/nhess-24-4631-2024.pdf |
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| author | E. Schoepfer J. Lauterjung T. Riedlinger H. Spahn J. C. Gómez Zapata J. C. Gómez Zapata C. D. León H. Rosero-Velásquez S. Harig M. Langbein N. Brinckmann G. Strunz C. Geiß C. Geiß H. Taubenböck H. Taubenböck |
| author_facet | E. Schoepfer J. Lauterjung T. Riedlinger H. Spahn J. C. Gómez Zapata J. C. Gómez Zapata C. D. León H. Rosero-Velásquez S. Harig M. Langbein N. Brinckmann G. Strunz C. Geiß C. Geiß H. Taubenböck H. Taubenböck |
| author_sort | E. Schoepfer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We live in a rapidly changing and globalized society. The increasing interdependence and interconnection of our economic, social and technical systems; growing urbanization; and increasing vulnerability to natural hazards (including climate change) are leading to ever more complex risk situations. This paper presents a conceptual approach for user-centred multi-risk assessment aimed to support potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or critical infrastructure operators. Based on the latest scientific and technical capabilities, we developed a method that enables the simulation and visualization of a range of scenarios with different intensities. It is based on a modular and decentralized system architecture using distributed web services that are published online, including a user-friendly interface. The approach is demonstrated using the example of earthquakes and tsunamis for the Lima metropolitan area (Peru), a megacity exposed to various cascading natural hazards. The development involved a wider group of Peruvian stakeholders from research and practice in a structured, iterative and participative feedback process over a period of 2.5 years to capture the needs and requirements from the user perspective. Results from the feedback process, including 94 responses to 5 questionnaires, confirmed the potential of the demonstrator as a complementary analysis and visualization tool. Together with the visualization of cascading processes, the ability to simulate and compare scenarios of varying severity was considered relevant and useful for improving the understanding of and preparedness for complex multi-risk situations, in practical applications, especially at the local level.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-087ea017bc994d38aa0762c19f9a56d5 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-087ea017bc994d38aa0762c19f9a56d52025-08-20T02:36:41ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812024-12-01244631466010.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessmentE. Schoepfer0J. Lauterjung1T. Riedlinger2H. Spahn3J. C. Gómez Zapata4J. C. Gómez Zapata5C. D. León6H. Rosero-Velásquez7S. Harig8M. Langbein9N. Brinckmann10G. Strunz11C. Geiß12C. Geiß13H. Taubenböck14H. Taubenböck15German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, GermanyHelmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, Germanyindependent consultant: Apen, 26689, GermanyHelmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, GermanyInstitute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, GermanyDIALOGIK gGmbH, Stuttgart, 70176, GermanyEngineering Risk Analysis Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, 80333, GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, 27570, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, GermanyHelmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, GermanyDepartment of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, 53115, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, GermanyInstitute of Geography and Geology, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, 97074, Germany<p>We live in a rapidly changing and globalized society. The increasing interdependence and interconnection of our economic, social and technical systems; growing urbanization; and increasing vulnerability to natural hazards (including climate change) are leading to ever more complex risk situations. This paper presents a conceptual approach for user-centred multi-risk assessment aimed to support potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or critical infrastructure operators. Based on the latest scientific and technical capabilities, we developed a method that enables the simulation and visualization of a range of scenarios with different intensities. It is based on a modular and decentralized system architecture using distributed web services that are published online, including a user-friendly interface. The approach is demonstrated using the example of earthquakes and tsunamis for the Lima metropolitan area (Peru), a megacity exposed to various cascading natural hazards. The development involved a wider group of Peruvian stakeholders from research and practice in a structured, iterative and participative feedback process over a period of 2.5 years to capture the needs and requirements from the user perspective. Results from the feedback process, including 94 responses to 5 questionnaires, confirmed the potential of the demonstrator as a complementary analysis and visualization tool. Together with the visualization of cascading processes, the ability to simulate and compare scenarios of varying severity was considered relevant and useful for improving the understanding of and preparedness for complex multi-risk situations, in practical applications, especially at the local level.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/4631/2024/nhess-24-4631-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Schoepfer J. Lauterjung T. Riedlinger H. Spahn J. C. Gómez Zapata J. C. Gómez Zapata C. D. León H. Rosero-Velásquez S. Harig M. Langbein N. Brinckmann G. Strunz C. Geiß C. Geiß H. Taubenböck H. Taubenböck Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment |
| title_full | Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment |
| title_fullStr | Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment |
| title_short | Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment |
| title_sort | between global risk reduction goals scientific technical capabilities and local realities a modular approach for user centric multi risk assessment |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/4631/2024/nhess-24-4631-2024.pdf |
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