Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study

Abstract Background Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) at baseline has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the relationship between long-term AIP trajectories and CVD remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the associa...

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Main Authors: Xicong Li, Lifei Lu, Yubiao Chen, Baiyun Liu, Bei Liu, Heshen Tian, Huajing Yang, Ruiwei Guo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-03-01
Series:Cardiovascular Diabetology
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-025-02677-w
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author Xicong Li
Lifei Lu
Yubiao Chen
Baiyun Liu
Bei Liu
Heshen Tian
Huajing Yang
Ruiwei Guo
author_facet Xicong Li
Lifei Lu
Yubiao Chen
Baiyun Liu
Bei Liu
Heshen Tian
Huajing Yang
Ruiwei Guo
author_sort Xicong Li
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) at baseline has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the relationship between long-term AIP trajectories and CVD remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the associations between AIP trajectories and the incidence of CVD in the English population. Method The study data analysis was based on the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) from 2004 to 2017. The study population consisted of individuals aged 50 years and older in England. AIP was calculated as log10 (triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Group-based trajectory model (GBTM) was applied to identify the trajectory of the AIP index from Wave 2 to 8 over a 12-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were then used to analyze the associations between different AIP index trajectory groups and the incidence of CVD. Results A total of 3976 participants with completed AIP data in Wave 2 and more than two AIP measurements between Wave 2 and Wave 8 were enrolled in the ELSA cohort. The participants were divided into three groups [low-stable group (n = 1146), moderate-stable group (n = 2110), high-stable group (n = 720)] using a GBTM model. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants in the high-stable group indicated an increased risk of developing incident of CVD compared to those in the low-stable AIP group [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.33; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.02–1.74, P = 0.033]. However, no differences in the incidence of CVD (HR 1.20, 95%CI 0.98–1.48, P = 0.082) were observed in the moderate-stable group. Subgroup analysis indicated similar results for participants under 63 years old and those with high alcohol consumption. Conclusions A high and sustainable level of the AIP index may contribute to the incidence of CVD. The trajectories of the AIP index can help identify older English individuals at increased risk of CVD who deserve primitive preventive and therapeutic approaches.
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spelling doaj-art-085488bcd28f4127ace04fa10813b8892025-08-20T02:51:27ZengBMCCardiovascular Diabetology1475-28402025-03-0124111310.1186/s12933-025-02677-wAssociation of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort studyXicong Li0Lifei Lu1Yubiao Chen2Baiyun Liu3Bei Liu4Heshen Tian5Huajing Yang6Ruiwei Guo7Kunming Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, National Center for Respiratory Medicine, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, National Center for Respiratory Medicine, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, National Center for Respiratory Medicine, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease of Zhejiang Province, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of MedicineState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, National Center for Respiratory Medicine, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLAAbstract Background Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) at baseline has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the relationship between long-term AIP trajectories and CVD remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the associations between AIP trajectories and the incidence of CVD in the English population. Method The study data analysis was based on the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) from 2004 to 2017. The study population consisted of individuals aged 50 years and older in England. AIP was calculated as log10 (triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Group-based trajectory model (GBTM) was applied to identify the trajectory of the AIP index from Wave 2 to 8 over a 12-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were then used to analyze the associations between different AIP index trajectory groups and the incidence of CVD. Results A total of 3976 participants with completed AIP data in Wave 2 and more than two AIP measurements between Wave 2 and Wave 8 were enrolled in the ELSA cohort. The participants were divided into three groups [low-stable group (n = 1146), moderate-stable group (n = 2110), high-stable group (n = 720)] using a GBTM model. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants in the high-stable group indicated an increased risk of developing incident of CVD compared to those in the low-stable AIP group [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.33; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.02–1.74, P = 0.033]. However, no differences in the incidence of CVD (HR 1.20, 95%CI 0.98–1.48, P = 0.082) were observed in the moderate-stable group. Subgroup analysis indicated similar results for participants under 63 years old and those with high alcohol consumption. Conclusions A high and sustainable level of the AIP index may contribute to the incidence of CVD. The trajectories of the AIP index can help identify older English individuals at increased risk of CVD who deserve primitive preventive and therapeutic approaches.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-025-02677-wAtherogenic index of plasmaCardiovascular diseaseTrajectoryELSA
spellingShingle Xicong Li
Lifei Lu
Yubiao Chen
Baiyun Liu
Bei Liu
Heshen Tian
Huajing Yang
Ruiwei Guo
Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study
Cardiovascular Diabetology
Atherogenic index of plasma
Cardiovascular disease
Trajectory
ELSA
title Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study
title_full Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study
title_fullStr Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study
title_full_unstemmed Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study
title_short Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study
title_sort association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12 year follow up findings from the elsa cohort study
topic Atherogenic index of plasma
Cardiovascular disease
Trajectory
ELSA
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-025-02677-w
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