Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model
Somalia, a country challenged by ongoing conflict and economic instability, faces significant environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. This study investigates the effects of key macroeconomic variables, economic growth, population growth, and inflation, on deforestation from 1993 to 20...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Cogent Economics & Finance |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2496672 |
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| author | Mohamud Hussein Mohamud Fatima Salah Abdirahman Atta Gul |
| author_facet | Mohamud Hussein Mohamud Fatima Salah Abdirahman Atta Gul |
| author_sort | Mohamud Hussein Mohamud |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Somalia, a country challenged by ongoing conflict and economic instability, faces significant environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. This study investigates the effects of key macroeconomic variables, economic growth, population growth, and inflation, on deforestation from 1993 to 2021. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis explores both short- and long-term relationships. Stationarity of variables was tested through ADF, PP, and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests, while diagnostic tests ensured the robustness of the model. The results confirm the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating that economic growth initially intensifies deforestation but later contributes to its decline after a critical GDP level. Population growth is found to significantly drive deforestation in the long run, whereas inflation shows no notable impact. These findings underscore the need for policies that foster sustainable economic growth, manage population pressures, and conserve natural resources. The study recommends integrated strategies, including community-based initiatives and regulatory reforms, to promote environmental sustainability in Somalia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0842aa88c5f74dcebc45019b6bc8b701 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2332-2039 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cogent Economics & Finance |
| spelling | doaj-art-0842aa88c5f74dcebc45019b6bc8b7012025-08-20T02:11:16ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Economics & Finance2332-20392025-12-0113110.1080/23322039.2025.2496672Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL modelMohamud Hussein Mohamud0Fatima Salah Abdirahman1Atta Gul2Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, SomaliaFaculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, SomaliaDepartment of Statistics, Sargodha University, PakistanSomalia, a country challenged by ongoing conflict and economic instability, faces significant environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. This study investigates the effects of key macroeconomic variables, economic growth, population growth, and inflation, on deforestation from 1993 to 2021. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis explores both short- and long-term relationships. Stationarity of variables was tested through ADF, PP, and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests, while diagnostic tests ensured the robustness of the model. The results confirm the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating that economic growth initially intensifies deforestation but later contributes to its decline after a critical GDP level. Population growth is found to significantly drive deforestation in the long run, whereas inflation shows no notable impact. These findings underscore the need for policies that foster sustainable economic growth, manage population pressures, and conserve natural resources. The study recommends integrated strategies, including community-based initiatives and regulatory reforms, to promote environmental sustainability in Somalia.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2496672Economic growthinflationpopulation growthdeforestationSomaliaARDL |
| spellingShingle | Mohamud Hussein Mohamud Fatima Salah Abdirahman Atta Gul Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model Cogent Economics & Finance Economic growth inflation population growth deforestation Somalia ARDL |
| title | Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model |
| title_full | Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model |
| title_short | Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model |
| title_sort | analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in somalia evidence from an ardl model |
| topic | Economic growth inflation population growth deforestation Somalia ARDL |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2496672 |
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